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La Liga

Referee: David Fernandez Borbalan

Barcelona

S S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

3,5

2,2

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+1,7

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,5

2,8

Scored

3,3

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+2,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

70% Possession 30%

19 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 3. · Ath Madrid 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Sevilla	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Las Palmas	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Villarreal	5	2	3	0	+3	9
6	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+9	8
7	Eibar	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Sp Gijon	5	2	1	2	-4	7
9	Alaves	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	La Coruna	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Malaga	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Betis	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Leganes	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Celta	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Espanol	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Granada	4	0	2	2	-5	2
19	Osasuna	4	0	2	2	-5	2
20	Valencia	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+5	4
6	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Malaga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Barcelona	2	1	0	1	+3	3
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Celta	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Betis	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Alaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Granada	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Osasuna	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Leganes	2	0	1	1	-4	1
20	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Villarreal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+4	4
5	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Las Palmas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sociedad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Eibar	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Betis	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	La Coruna	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Celta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Osasuna	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Granada	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	Sp Gijon	3	0	1	2	-6	1
20	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.