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Bundesliga

Referee: Florian Meyer

Darmstadt

U S T S U

2–3

Full-time

Mainz

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Darmstadt Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

57%

71%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Darmstadt 9. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+20	21
2	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+15	17
3	Schalke 04	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Wolfsburg	7	3	3	1	+2	12
5	Leverkusen	7	4	0	3	-1	12
6	Hertha	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	FC Koln	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Darmstadt	7	2	4	1	-1	10
10	Hamburg	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	3	2	+4	9
12	Mainz	7	3	0	4	+0	9
13	Werder Bremen	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	M'gladbach	7	2	0	5	-6	6
15	Hoffenheim	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	4
17	Stuttgart	7	1	0	6	-8	3
18	Hannover	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Wolfsburg	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	FC Koln	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Hertha	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Schalke 04	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+4	5
10	Darmstadt	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Hamburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-2	3
14	Werder Bremen	4	1	0	3	-6	3
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Hannover	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Stuttgart	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	-2	6
6	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	1	2	+0	4
10	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	FC Koln	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	M'gladbach	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-4	2
17	Hannover	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Augsburg	3	0	1	2	-3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.