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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Montpellier

T S S T U

2–3

Full-time

Nantes

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 31%

29%

32%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

57%

36%

Both score Ø 54%

68%

39%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 13. · Nantes 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	29	21	5	3	+58	68
2	Nice	29	18	9	2	+24	63
3	Paris SG	28	19	5	4	+37	62
4	Lyon	27	15	2	10	+23	47
5	Marseille	29	13	6	10	+6	45
6	Bordeaux	29	11	10	8	+1	43
7	St Etienne	28	10	10	8	+9	40
8	Rennes	28	9	10	9	-5	37
9	Toulouse	28	9	9	10	+3	36
10	Angers	29	10	6	13	-10	36
11	Guingamp	28	9	8	11	-4	35
12	Nantes	28	9	7	12	-17	34
13	Montpellier	28	8	9	11	-6	33
14	Caen	29	9	5	15	-17	32
15	Metz	27	8	7	12	-25	31
16	Lille	28	8	6	14	-9	30
17	Nancy	28	7	7	14	-17	28
18	Dijon	28	6	9	13	-8	27
19	Bastia	28	5	10	13	-14	25
20	Lorient	28	6	4	18	-29	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	15	11	4	0	+20	37
3	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+14	33
4	Paris SG	14	9	5	0	+23	32
5	Lyon	14	10	0	4	+19	30
6	Rennes	14	8	4	2	+9	28
7	Toulouse	14	8	2	4	+11	26
8	Montpellier	14	7	5	2	+11	26
9	St Etienne	14	7	5	2	+11	26
10	Guingamp	13	7	3	3	+5	24
11	Angers	14	6	5	3	+5	23
12	Bordeaux	15	6	5	4	-1	23
13	Caen	14	7	2	5	-4	23
14	Dijon	14	5	5	4	+5	20
15	Metz	13	5	5	3	-5	20
16	Bastia	15	3	9	3	+1	18
17	Nantes	14	5	3	6	-9	18
18	Nancy	13	5	2	6	-2	17
19	Lille	14	5	2	7	-3	17
20	Lorient	14	5	2	7	-8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	0	4	+14	30
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+17	28
3	Nice	14	7	5	2	+4	26
4	Bordeaux	14	5	5	4	+2	20
5	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+4	17
6	Nantes	14	4	4	6	-8	16
7	St Etienne	14	3	5	6	-2	14
8	Lille	14	3	4	7	-6	13
9	Angers	15	4	1	10	-15	13
10	Marseille	14	3	3	8	-8	12
11	Guingamp	15	2	5	8	-9	11
12	Nancy	15	2	5	8	-15	11
13	Metz	14	3	2	9	-20	11
14	Toulouse	14	1	7	6	-8	10
15	Caen	15	2	3	10	-13	9
16	Rennes	14	1	6	7	-14	9
17	Dijon	14	1	4	9	-13	7
18	Bastia	13	2	1	10	-15	7
19	Montpellier	14	1	4	9	-17	7
20	Lorient	14	1	2	11	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.