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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Dortmund

S U U T S

5–1

Full-time

Augsburg

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

67%

11%

Points per game

2,2

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

78%

33%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,9

2,6

Scored

2,7

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 4

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Augsburg 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	10	0	0	+29	30
2	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+13	20
3	Schalke 04	9	6	1	2	+3	19
4	Wolfsburg	10	5	3	2	+3	18
5	Hertha	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+0	17
7	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Hamburg	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	Darmstadt	10	3	4	3	-1	13
11	M'gladbach	9	4	0	5	+0	12
12	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Mainz	10	4	0	6	-3	12
14	Werder Bremen	10	3	1	6	-5	10
15	Hannover	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Stuttgart	10	2	1	7	-8	7
17	Hoffenheim	10	1	3	6	-7	6
18	Augsburg	9	1	2	6	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Wolfsburg	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Hertha	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	FC Koln	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Mainz	6	2	0	4	-3	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Hamburg	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Darmstadt	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Hannover	5	1	0	4	-5	3
16	Stuttgart	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	Werder Bremen	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Hoffenheim	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	3	1	1	+2	10
4	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Hamburg	6	3	0	3	-4	9
6	Darmstadt	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Leverkusen	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Hertha	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	M'gladbach	5	2	0	3	+0	6
12	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
13	FC Koln	5	2	0	3	-5	6
14	Hannover	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	-5	5
16	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-1	4
17	Hoffenheim	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Augsburg	4	0	2	2	-3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.