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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Sunderland

T T T U T

3–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 6%

11%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

2,1

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 5

8 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sunderland 20. · Newcastle 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Man City	9	7	0	2	+16	21
3	West Ham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Man United	9	6	1	2	+7	19
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	Crystal Palace	10	5	0	5	+1	15
7	Tottenham	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	West Brom	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+3	13
10	Everton	10	3	4	3	+0	13
11	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+0	13
12	Watford	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
14	Stoke	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Chelsea	10	3	2	5	-4	11
16	Norwich	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Newcastle	9	1	3	5	-7	6
19	Aston Villa	10	1	1	8	-8	4
20	Sunderland	9	0	3	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	0	1	+13	12
2	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Leicester	5	3	1	1	+1	10
5	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+4	9
6	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Southampton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+2	5
13	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Watford	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Aston Villa	5	0	1	4	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+1	10
4	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Crystal Palace	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Man United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Everton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Watford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Southampton	4	1	3	0	+2	6
12	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Swansea	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Norwich	5	1	2	2	-5	5
16	Chelsea	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-7	3
19	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.