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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Mainz

T S T T S

0–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 57%

50%

63%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

75%

88%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,9

4,1

Scored

1,5

2,8

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 4

4 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 8. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	8	0	0	+24	24
2	Dortmund	8	5	2	1	+11	17
3	Schalke 04	8	5	1	2	+2	16
4	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	FC Koln	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	-1	13
8	Mainz	8	4	0	4	+1	12
9	Wolfsburg	8	3	3	2	+0	12
10	Darmstadt	8	2	4	2	-2	10
11	Hamburg	8	3	1	4	-5	10
12	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	3	3	+2	9
13	M'gladbach	8	3	0	5	-4	9
14	Werder Bremen	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Hoffenheim	8	1	3	4	-4	6
16	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Hannover	8	1	2	5	-9	5
18	Stuttgart	8	1	1	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+17	15
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Wolfsburg	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Hertha	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	FC Koln	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+4	5
11	Darmstadt	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Hamburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Hannover	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Werder Bremen	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	Hoffenheim	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Stuttgart	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Dortmund	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	FC Koln	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Hamburg	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	M'gladbach	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Augsburg	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Hannover	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.