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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Milan

S S T T U

2–1

Full-time

Sassuolo

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

21 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 2

7 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 14. · Sassuolo 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	8	6	0	2	+9	18
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+2	18
3	Roma	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Napoli	8	4	3	1	+10	15
5	Sassuolo	8	4	3	1	+3	15
6	Lazio	8	5	0	3	-2	15
7	Sampdoria	9	4	2	3	+4	14
8	Torino	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Atalanta	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Chievo	8	3	3	2	+5	12
11	Palermo	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Empoli	9	3	1	5	-4	10
13	Genoa	9	3	1	5	-4	10
14	Milan	8	3	1	4	-5	10
15	Juventus	8	2	3	3	+1	9
16	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Frosinone	8	2	1	5	-4	7
18	Bologna	9	2	0	7	-8	6
19	Verona	9	0	5	4	-7	5
20	Carpi	9	1	2	6	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sampdoria	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Fiorentina	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Roma	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Torino	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Inter	5	3	1	1	+0	10
9	Genoa	4	3	0	1	+2	9
10	Sassuolo	4	2	2	0	+2	8
11	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
12	Empoli	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Frosinone	4	2	0	2	+1	6
14	Milan	3	2	0	1	-2	6
15	Juventus	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	Palermo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Carpi	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	3
19	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-2	3
20	Udinese	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	4	2	2	0	+2	8
2	Roma	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Sassuolo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+1	6
6	Palermo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Napoli	4	1	2	1	+3	5
8	Chievo	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Juventus	4	1	1	2	+0	4
10	Torino	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Milan	5	1	1	3	-3	4
12	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-6	3
15	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-9	3
16	Verona	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Sampdoria	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Carpi	4	0	1	3	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.