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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Derby

T T S S T

3–3

Full-time

Bristol City

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

31%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

28%

59%

Both score Ø 40%

21%

59%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Bristol City 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	29	20	2	7	+34	62
2	Brighton	29	18	7	4	+23	61
3	Huddersfield	27	17	4	6	+8	55
4	Leeds	30	17	3	10	+12	54
5	Reading	28	16	5	7	+9	53
6	Norwich	30	14	5	11	+8	47
7	Derby	29	13	7	9	+8	46
8	Sheffield Weds	28	13	7	8	+6	46
9	Barnsley	30	13	6	11	+4	45
10	Preston	30	11	9	10	+1	42
11	Fulham	27	10	10	7	+9	40
12	Birmingham	31	10	10	11	-10	40
13	Brentford	29	10	7	12	+2	37
14	Aston Villa	29	8	12	9	-3	36
15	Nott'm Forest	30	10	6	14	-6	36
16	Ipswich	30	9	9	12	-8	36
17	Cardiff	30	10	6	14	-10	36
18	Wolves	29	9	8	12	-2	35
19	QPR	30	9	7	14	-13	34
20	Bristol City	29	9	4	16	-3	31
21	Burton Albion	30	8	7	15	-11	31
22	Blackburn	29	7	7	15	-12	28
23	Wigan	29	6	8	15	-9	26
24	Rotherham	30	4	4	22	-37	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	14	11	2	1	+21	35
2	Huddersfield	14	11	2	1	+12	35
3	Leeds	15	10	2	3	+12	32
4	Newcastle	15	10	1	4	+18	31
5	Norwich	14	10	1	3	+17	31
6	Reading	14	9	3	2	+11	30
7	Sheffield Weds	13	9	1	3	+8	28
8	Nott'm Forest	15	8	3	4	+6	27
9	Aston Villa	13	6	7	0	+9	25
10	Derby	14	7	4	3	+8	25
11	Birmingham	16	7	4	5	+1	25
12	Ipswich	16	6	6	4	+2	24
13	Brentford	15	6	5	4	+9	23
14	Bristol City	15	7	2	6	+2	23
15	Barnsley	16	6	5	5	+1	23
16	Cardiff	16	7	2	7	-2	23
17	Preston	15	6	4	5	+4	22
18	Burton Albion	15	6	2	7	+0	20
19	Blackburn	16	5	5	6	-2	20
20	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
21	QPR	15	4	4	7	-8	16
22	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
23	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	-4	15
24	Wigan	15	3	4	8	-6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	15	7	5	3	+2	26
3	Fulham	14	6	5	3	+7	23
4	Reading	14	7	2	5	-2	23
5	Barnsley	14	7	1	6	+3	22
6	Leeds	15	7	1	7	+0	22
7	Derby	15	6	3	6	+0	21
8	Wolves	16	5	5	6	+2	20
9	Preston	15	5	5	5	-3	20
10	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
11	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
12	QPR	15	5	3	7	-5	18
13	Norwich	16	4	4	8	-9	16
14	Birmingham	15	3	6	6	-11	15
15	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
17	Cardiff	14	3	4	7	-8	13
18	Ipswich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
19	Burton Albion	15	2	5	8	-11	11
20	Aston Villa	16	2	5	9	-12	11
21	Nott'm Forest	15	2	3	10	-12	9
22	Bristol City	14	2	2	10	-5	8
23	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
24	Rotherham	16	0	1	15	-33	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.