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Bundesliga
Referee: Felix Zwayer
0–2
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Ingolstadt 04 Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,5
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,8
This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 48%
21%
74%
Points per game
0,8
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
42%
58%
Both score Ø 53%
53%
53%
Average goals
2,5
2,9
Scored
0,9
2,3
Conceded
1,6
0,6
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

29% Possession 71%
8 Shots 17
0 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 4
0 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Ingolstadt 04 17. · Bayern Munich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 19 14 4 1 +31 46
2 RB Leipzig 19 13 3 3 +19 42
3 Ein Frankfurt 19 10 5 4 +10 35
4 Dortmund 19 9 7 3 +18 34
5 Hoffenheim 19 8 10 1 +16 34
6 Hertha 19 10 3 6 +6 33
7 FC Koln 19 8 8 3 +12 32
8 Freiburg 19 8 2 9 -9 26
9 Mainz 20 7 4 9 -6 25
10 Leverkusen 19 7 3 9 -1 24
11 Augsburg 20 6 6 8 -6 24
12 M'gladbach 19 6 5 8 -6 23
13 Schalke 04 19 6 4 9 +1 22
14 Wolfsburg 19 5 4 10 -10 19
15 Werder Bremen 19 4 4 11 -17 16
16 Hamburg 19 4 4 11 -19 16
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 19 4 3 12 -13 15
18 Darmstadt 19 2 3 14 -26 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Ingolstadt 04 Bayern Munich
Half-time 0–0
65′
🔁 Douglas Costa
↦ Xabi Alonso
Romain Brégerie 🟨
73′
73′
🟨 Robert Lewandowski
L. Hinterseer 🔁
↦ D. Lezcano
74′
74′
🔁 A. Robben
↦ J. Kimmich
Pascal Groß 🟨
76′
S. Lex 🔁
↦ P. Groß
79′
80′
🔁 Rafinha
↦ P. Lahm
A. Jung 🔁
↦ M. Leckie
89′
90′
A. Vidal 0–1
T. Müller
91′
A. Robben 0–2
Douglas Costa
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

3-4-2-1
35 M. Hansen G
34 M. Matip D
29 M. Suttner D
18 R. Brégerie D
32 M. Tisserand D
33 F. Hadergjonaj D
36 A. Cohen M
6 A. Morales M
10 P. Groß F
11 D. Lezcano F
7 M. Leckie M
Bench (7)
16 L. Hinterseer
14 S. Lex
3 A. Jung
1 Ø. Nyland
8 Roger
13 R. Leipertz
28 T. Levels

Coach: M. Walpurgis

Bayern Munich

4-3-2-1
1 M. Neuer G
21 P. Lahm D
5 M. Hummels D
27 D. Alaba D
14 Xabi Alonso M
8 Javi Martínez M
23 A. Vidal M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
32 J. Kimmich D
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (7)
11 Douglas Costa
10 A. Robben
13 Rafinha
18 Juan Bernat
26 S. Ulreich
29 K. Coman
35 Renato Sanches

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Felix Zwayer · 92 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.