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Championship

Referee: Andy Woolmer

Derby

S T S U U

4–0

Full-time

Bristol City

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Championship · 19/20 matches

Win Ø 34%

47%

20%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

37%

45%

Both score Ø 51%

47%

55%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 4. · Bristol City 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	19	11	8	0	+11	41
2	Middlesbrough	20	12	4	4	+17	40
3	Hull	19	11	5	3	+18	38
4	Derby	19	9	8	2	+13	35
5	Burnley	20	9	8	3	+7	35
6	Ipswich	20	8	7	5	+2	31
7	Cardiff	20	7	9	4	+4	30
8	Sheffield Weds	19	7	8	4	+3	29
9	Birmingham	20	8	5	7	+3	29
10	Brentford	20	8	5	7	+1	29
11	Blackburn	21	6	10	5	+4	28
12	Reading	20	7	6	7	+3	27
13	QPR	20	7	6	7	-1	27
14	Wolves	20	6	7	7	+0	25
15	Nott'm Forest	21	6	7	8	+0	25
16	Preston	20	5	9	6	+0	24
17	Fulham	20	5	8	7	-2	23
18	Leeds	20	5	8	7	-4	23
19	Bristol City	20	4	7	9	-13	19
20	Huddersfield	20	4	6	10	-10	18
21	Charlton	20	4	5	11	-15	17
22	Milton Keynes Dons	20	4	4	12	-12	16
23	Rotherham	20	4	3	13	-14	15
24	Bolton	20	1	9	10	-15	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	10	8	2	0	+8	26
2	Hull	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+14	23
4	Burnley	10	6	2	2	+6	20
5	Derby	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Cardiff	10	5	4	1	+6	19
7	Sheffield Weds	9	5	3	1	+6	18
8	QPR	10	4	5	1	+6	17
9	Reading	10	4	4	2	+6	16
10	Brentford	10	5	1	4	-1	16
11	Nott'm Forest	10	4	3	3	+4	15
12	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	+4	15
13	Ipswich	10	3	5	2	+2	14
14	Fulham	10	3	4	3	+0	13
15	Charlton	10	3	3	4	-5	12
16	Wolves	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Preston	10	2	5	3	-1	11
18	Birmingham	10	3	2	5	-4	11
19	Bolton	10	1	7	2	-1	10
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	3	1	6	-4	10
21	Huddersfield	10	2	3	5	-3	9
22	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-5	9
23	Bristol City	10	2	3	5	-7	9
24	Rotherham	10	2	2	6	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	10	5	3	2	+7	18
2	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+3	17
3	Ipswich	10	5	2	3	+0	17
4	Derby	9	4	4	1	+4	16
5	Hull	10	4	3	3	+4	15
6	Brighton	9	3	6	0	+3	15
7	Burnley	10	3	6	1	+1	15
8	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+1	14
10	Brentford	10	3	4	3	+2	13
11	Preston	10	3	4	3	+1	13
12	Blackburn	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Cardiff	10	2	5	3	-2	11
14	Reading	10	3	2	5	-3	11
15	Sheffield Weds	10	2	5	3	-3	11
16	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	Nott'm Forest	11	2	4	5	-4	10
18	Bristol City	10	2	4	4	-6	10
19	QPR	10	3	1	6	-7	10
20	Huddersfield	10	2	3	5	-7	9
21	Rotherham	10	2	1	7	-7	7
22	Milton Keynes Dons	10	1	3	6	-8	6
23	Charlton	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Bolton	10	0	2	8	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.