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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Leeds

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 50%

56%

44%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

36%

24%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

21 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

16 Corners 3

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Leeds 5. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	24	16	6	2	+25	54
2	Newcastle	25	17	1	7	+28	52
3	Reading	24	14	4	6	+8	46
4	Huddersfield	24	14	4	6	+3	46
5	Leeds	25	14	3	8	+10	45
6	Derby	25	11	7	7	+6	40
7	Sheffield Weds	24	11	6	7	+3	39
8	Barnsley	25	11	5	9	+6	38
9	Norwich	25	11	4	10	+4	37
10	Preston	25	10	6	9	+1	36
11	Aston Villa	25	8	11	6	+2	35
12	Birmingham	25	9	8	8	-5	35
13	Fulham	23	8	9	6	+6	33
14	Brentford	25	9	6	10	+1	33
15	QPR	26	9	5	12	-11	32
16	Ipswich	25	8	7	10	-4	31
17	Wolves	25	7	8	10	-2	29
18	Bristol City	25	8	3	14	-2	27
19	Cardiff	24	7	6	11	-11	27
20	Nott'm Forest	25	7	5	13	-8	26
21	Burton Albion	25	6	7	12	-8	25
22	Blackburn	25	6	6	13	-11	24
23	Wigan	25	4	7	14	-11	19
24	Rotherham	25	3	4	18	-30	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Reading	13	8	3	2	+10	27
3	Leeds	13	8	2	3	+9	26
4	Huddersfield	11	8	2	1	+7	26
5	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+13	25
6	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
7	Newcastle	12	8	0	4	+13	24
8	Aston Villa	12	6	6	0	+9	24
9	Derby	13	6	4	3	+7	22
10	Birmingham	13	6	3	4	+1	21
11	Ipswich	13	5	5	3	+4	20
12	Brentford	12	5	4	3	+7	19
13	Barnsley	13	5	4	4	+2	19
14	Bristol City	12	6	1	5	+2	19
15	Nott'm Forest	12	5	3	4	+2	18
16	Preston	13	5	3	5	+2	18
17	Burton Albion	12	5	2	5	+3	17
18	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-4	17
19	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	16
20	QPR	13	4	3	6	-7	15
21	Fulham	12	3	5	4	+0	14
22	Rotherham	12	3	3	6	-4	12
23	Wolves	12	3	3	6	-5	12
24	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	13	9	1	3	+15	28
2	Brighton	12	7	4	1	+6	25
3	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
4	Fulham	11	5	4	2	+6	19
5	Barnsley	12	6	1	5	+4	19
6	Leeds	12	6	1	5	+1	19
7	Reading	11	6	1	4	-2	19
8	Preston	12	5	3	4	-1	18
9	Derby	12	5	3	4	-1	18
10	Wolves	13	4	5	4	+3	17
11	QPR	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Sheffield Weds	12	3	5	4	-2	14
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-6	14
14	Birmingham	12	3	5	4	-6	14
15	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-9	12
16	Aston Villa	13	2	5	6	-7	11
17	Ipswich	12	3	2	7	-8	11
18	Wigan	13	2	4	7	-5	10
19	Cardiff	11	2	4	5	-7	10
20	Bristol City	13	2	2	9	-4	8
21	Blackburn	12	2	2	8	-9	8
22	Nott'm Forest	13	2	2	9	-10	8
23	Burton Albion	13	1	5	7	-11	8
24	Rotherham	13	0	1	12	-26	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.