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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Bristol City

S T U S U

2–3

Full-time

Derby

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Championship · 42/40 matches

Win Ø 37%

29%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

48%

40%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

50% Possession 50%

7 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 17. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	42	26	7	9	+32	85
2	Burnley	42	23	14	5	+32	83
3	Brighton	40	22	13	5	+24	79
4	Hull	38	21	9	8	+34	72
5	Derby	40	18	13	9	+17	67
6	Sheffield Weds	39	18	12	9	+19	66
7	Cardiff	42	16	16	10	+8	64
8	Ipswich	42	16	13	13	+0	61
9	Birmingham	42	16	11	15	+4	59
10	Preston	42	14	15	13	+0	57
11	QPR	42	13	17	12	+4	56
12	Leeds	42	13	15	14	-8	54
13	Brentford	41	15	8	18	-4	53
14	Wolves	42	13	14	15	-5	53
15	Reading	42	13	12	17	-3	51
16	Huddersfield	42	13	10	19	-3	49
17	Bristol City	42	12	12	18	-19	48
18	Blackburn	42	11	14	17	-3	47
19	Nott'm Forest	42	11	14	17	-7	47
20	Fulham	42	11	14	17	-9	47
21	Rotherham	42	13	8	21	-13	47
22	Milton Keynes Dons	42	9	11	22	-25	38
23	Charlton	42	8	12	22	-36	36
24	Bolton	42	4	14	24	-39	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	21	16	3	2	+26	51
2	Burnley	21	14	5	2	+23	47
3	Brighton	20	14	3	3	+18	45
4	Hull	18	13	5	0	+31	44
5	Sheffield Weds	20	12	6	2	+22	42
6	Cardiff	21	11	8	2	+12	41
7	Derby	20	11	6	3	+18	39
8	QPR	21	9	8	4	+11	35
9	Reading	21	8	9	4	+7	33
10	Ipswich	21	8	7	6	+3	31
11	Preston	21	7	9	5	+1	30
12	Birmingham	21	9	3	9	+0	30
13	Rotherham	21	8	5	8	-2	29
14	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	+4	28
15	Brentford	21	8	4	9	-1	28
16	Wolves	21	6	9	6	-1	27
17	Nott'm Forest	21	7	6	8	-1	27
18	Huddersfield	21	7	5	9	+4	26
19	Fulham	21	7	5	9	+1	26
20	Leeds	21	6	8	7	-5	26
21	Bristol City	21	6	7	8	-3	25
22	Milton Keynes Dons	21	7	3	11	-12	24
23	Charlton	21	5	8	8	-7	23
24	Bolton	21	4	10	7	-3	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	9	9	3	+9	36
2	Brighton	20	8	10	2	+6	34
3	Middlesbrough	21	10	4	7	+6	34
4	Ipswich	21	8	6	7	-3	30
5	Birmingham	21	7	8	6	+4	29
6	Hull	20	8	4	8	+3	28
7	Derby	20	7	7	6	-1	28
8	Leeds	21	7	7	7	-3	28
9	Preston	21	7	6	8	-1	27
10	Wolves	21	7	5	9	-4	26
11	Brentford	20	7	4	9	-3	25
12	Sheffield Weds	19	6	6	7	-3	24
13	Cardiff	21	5	8	8	-4	23
14	Huddersfield	21	6	5	10	-7	23
15	Bristol City	21	6	5	10	-16	23
16	QPR	21	4	9	8	-7	21
17	Fulham	21	4	9	8	-10	21
18	Nott'm Forest	21	4	8	9	-6	20
19	Blackburn	21	4	7	10	-7	19
20	Reading	21	5	3	13	-10	18
21	Rotherham	21	5	3	13	-11	18
22	Milton Keynes Dons	21	2	8	11	-13	14
23	Charlton	21	3	4	14	-29	13
24	Bolton	21	0	4	17	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.