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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Ipswich

S T S T U

0–3

Full-time

Derby

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Championship · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 38%

32%

44%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

39%

26%

Both score Ø 33%

43%

22%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 9

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 14. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	27	18	6	3	+25	60
2	Newcastle	27	19	1	7	+33	58
3	Leeds	28	16	3	9	+12	51
4	Reading	26	15	4	7	+8	49
5	Huddersfield	25	15	4	6	+5	49
6	Barnsley	28	13	5	10	+6	44
7	Norwich	28	13	4	11	+7	43
8	Derby	27	12	7	8	+6	43
9	Preston	28	11	8	9	+3	41
10	Sheffield Weds	25	11	6	8	+2	39
11	Fulham	25	9	10	6	+8	37
12	Birmingham	28	9	10	9	-7	37
13	Aston Villa	27	8	12	7	+1	36
14	Ipswich	28	9	8	11	-5	35
15	Brentford	27	9	6	12	-1	33
16	Cardiff	28	9	6	13	-11	33
17	QPR	28	9	6	13	-12	33
18	Wolves	27	8	8	11	-3	32
19	Nott'm Forest	28	8	6	14	-9	30
20	Burton Albion	28	7	7	14	-10	28
21	Bristol City	27	8	3	16	-4	27
22	Wigan	27	6	7	14	-8	25
23	Blackburn	27	6	7	14	-12	25
24	Rotherham	28	4	4	20	-34	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	14	11	2	1	+21	35
2	Leeds	15	10	2	3	+12	32
3	Norwich	14	10	1	3	+17	31
4	Reading	14	9	3	2	+11	30
5	Huddersfield	12	9	2	1	+9	29
6	Newcastle	13	9	0	4	+17	27
7	Aston Villa	13	6	7	0	+9	25
8	Derby	14	7	4	3	+8	25
9	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
10	Ipswich	14	6	5	3	+5	23
11	Preston	15	6	4	5	+4	22
12	Barnsley	14	6	4	4	+3	22
13	Birmingham	14	6	4	4	+1	22
14	Nott'm Forest	13	6	3	4	+3	21
15	Cardiff	14	6	2	6	-3	20
16	Brentford	13	5	4	4	+6	19
17	Bristol City	13	6	1	6	+1	19
18	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
19	Burton Albion	13	5	2	6	+1	17
20	Blackburn	14	4	5	5	-2	17
21	QPR	15	4	4	7	-8	16
22	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
23	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	-4	15
24	Wigan	13	3	3	7	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	13	7	4	2	+4	25
3	Barnsley	14	7	1	6	+3	22
4	Fulham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
5	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
6	Leeds	13	6	1	6	+0	19
7	Preston	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Reading	12	6	1	5	-3	19
9	Derby	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	Wolves	14	4	5	5	+1	17
11	QPR	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Birmingham	14	3	6	5	-8	15
13	Sheffield Weds	13	3	5	5	-3	14
14	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-7	14
15	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
16	Cardiff	14	3	4	7	-8	13
17	Norwich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Ipswich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
19	Aston Villa	14	2	5	7	-8	11
20	Burton Albion	15	2	5	8	-11	11
21	Nott'm Forest	15	2	3	10	-12	9
22	Bristol City	14	2	2	10	-5	8
23	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
24	Rotherham	14	0	1	13	-30	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.