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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Derby

S S S U U

0–1

Full-time

Ipswich

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Ipswich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Championship · 43/45 matches

Win Ø 41%

44%

38%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

40%

42%

Both score Ø 48%

49%

47%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Ipswich 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	45	25	15	5	+34	90
2	Middlesbrough	45	26	10	9	+32	88
3	Brighton	43	24	14	5	+30	86
4	Hull	42	23	10	9	+36	79
5	Derby	43	19	15	9	+18	72
6	Sheffield Weds	42	19	14	9	+22	71
7	Cardiff	45	17	16	12	+5	67
8	Ipswich	45	17	15	13	+1	66
9	Birmingham	45	16	14	15	+4	62
10	Brentford	45	18	8	19	+1	62
11	Preston	45	15	16	14	+0	61
12	Leeds	45	14	16	15	-8	58
13	QPR	45	13	18	14	-1	57
14	Wolves	45	13	16	16	-6	55
15	Blackburn	45	12	16	17	-2	52
16	Reading	45	13	13	19	-5	52
17	Nott'm Forest	45	12	16	17	-5	52
18	Bristol City	45	13	13	19	-16	52
19	Huddersfield	45	13	12	20	-7	51
20	Rotherham	45	13	10	22	-14	49
21	Fulham	45	11	15	19	-14	48
22	Charlton	45	9	13	23	-37	40
23	Milton Keynes Dons	45	9	12	24	-29	39
24	Bolton	45	5	15	25	-39	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	22	16	4	2	+26	52
2	Burnley	23	15	6	2	+24	51
3	Brighton	22	15	4	3	+22	49
4	Hull	20	14	6	0	+33	48
5	Sheffield Weds	22	13	7	2	+25	46
6	Cardiff	22	12	8	2	+13	44
7	Derby	21	11	7	3	+18	40
8	QPR	22	9	9	4	+11	36
9	Ipswich	23	9	8	6	+4	35
10	Brentford	23	10	4	9	+3	34
11	Reading	23	8	9	6	+5	33
12	Birmingham	23	9	5	9	+0	32
13	Preston	22	7	9	6	+0	30
14	Rotherham	23	8	6	9	-3	30
15	Blackburn	22	7	8	7	+4	29
16	Nott'm Forest	23	7	8	8	-1	29
17	Leeds	23	7	8	8	-5	29
18	Bristol City	23	7	7	9	+0	28
19	Wolves	22	6	10	6	-1	28
20	Huddersfield	22	7	6	9	+4	27
21	Fulham	22	7	5	10	-1	26
22	Bolton	23	5	11	7	-2	26
23	Milton Keynes Dons	22	7	3	12	-15	24
24	Charlton	22	5	8	9	-9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	10	9	3	+10	39
2	Brighton	21	9	10	2	+8	37
3	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+6	36
4	Derby	22	8	8	6	+0	32
5	Hull	22	9	4	9	+3	31
6	Preston	23	8	7	8	+0	31
7	Ipswich	22	8	7	7	-3	31
8	Birmingham	22	7	9	6	+4	30
9	Leeds	22	7	8	7	-3	29
10	Brentford	22	8	4	10	-2	28
11	Wolves	23	7	6	10	-5	27
12	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	-3	25
13	Huddersfield	23	6	6	11	-11	24
14	Bristol City	22	6	6	10	-16	24
15	Nott'm Forest	22	5	8	9	-4	23
16	Blackburn	23	5	8	10	-6	23
17	Cardiff	23	5	8	10	-8	23
18	Fulham	23	4	10	9	-13	22
19	QPR	23	4	9	10	-12	21
20	Reading	22	5	4	13	-10	19
21	Rotherham	22	5	4	13	-11	19
22	Charlton	23	4	5	14	-28	17
23	Milton Keynes Dons	23	2	9	12	-14	15
24	Bolton	22	0	4	18	-37	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.