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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
Sp Lisbon
S S S S S
5–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Vitoria Setubal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,5
Scored
3,2
0,8
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,3
-0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 49%
78%
19%
Points per game
2,5
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
53%
59%
Both score Ø 52%
47%
56%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

71% Possession 29%
20 Shots 3
12 Shots on target 0
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Corners 1
6 Offside 5
16 Free kicks against 19
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Vitoria Setubal 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 32 27 1 4 +61 82
2 Sp Lisbon 32 25 5 2 +49 80
3 Porto 33 22 4 7 +33 70
4 Sp Braga 33 16 10 7 +23 58
5 Arouca 32 13 13 6 +9 52
6 Pacos Ferreira 33 13 9 11 +1 48
7 Rio Ave 33 13 8 12 -1 47
8 Estoril 32 13 7 12 +0 46
9 Nacional 32 10 7 15 -13 37
10 Belenenses 32 9 10 13 -23 37
11 Guimaraes 32 8 12 12 -11 36
12 Maritimo 32 10 5 17 -15 35
13 Moreirense 32 8 9 15 -14 33
14 Boavista 32 7 9 16 -14 30
15 Vitoria Setubal 32 6 11 15 -16 29
16 U. Madeira 32 7 8 17 -21 29
17 Tondela 33 7 6 20 -22 27
18 Academica 33 5 10 18 -26 25

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Vitoria Setubal
Adrien Silva 🟨
14′
15′
🟨 Vasco Costa
1–0 Gelson Martins
25′
33′
🟨 Dani Soares
2–0 T. Gutiérrez
37′
Half-time 3–0
3–0 Gelson Martins
55′
58′
🔁 Miguel Lourenço
↦ Paulo Tavares
58′
🔁 André Horta
↦ Ricardo Dani
M. Zeegelaar 🔁
↦ I. Slimani
65′
68′
🟨 Willian Alves
70′
🟨 Vasco Costa
70′
🟥 Vasco Costa
4–0 B. Ruiz
71′
H. Barcos 🔁
↦ Gelson Martins
72′
72′
🔁 André Claro
↦ A. Issoko
Bruno César 🟨
77′
Carlos Mané 🔁
↦ Bruno César
81′
Ruben Semedo 🟨
82′
5–0 B. Ruiz
92′
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

1 Rui Patrício G
13 S. Coates D
23 Adrien Silva M
2 E. Schelotto D
14 William Carvalho M
35 Rúben Semedo D
20 B. Ruiz M
19 T. Gutiérrez F
11 Bruno César M
9 I. Slimani F
60 Gelson Martins M
Bench (7)
31 M. Zeegelaar
29 H. Barcos
36 Carlos Mané
6 A. Aquilani
26 A. Jug
44 Naldo
47 Ricardo Esgaio

Vitoria Setubal

82 Ricardo G
2 Tiago Valente
22 William Alves D
20 T. Gorupec D
3 Frederico Venâncio D
66 Ricardo Dani
8 Paulo Tavares M
17 M. Makuszewski F
90 Ruca M
23 Vasco Costa F
19 A. Issoko D
Bench (7)
44 Miguel Lourenço
77 André Horta
18 André Claro
1 L. Raeder
6 Fabio Pacheco
21 Nuno Pinto
30 A. Meyong

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.