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Championship

Referee: Keith Hill

Ipswich

U S T S S

0–1

Full-time

Derby

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

This season — Championship · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 47%

43%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

52%

40%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 6. · Derby 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	22	14	4	4	+21	46
2	Brighton	21	11	9	1	+8	42
3	Hull	20	12	5	3	+19	41
4	Derby	20	10	8	2	+17	38
5	Burnley	21	9	8	4	+6	35
6	Ipswich	21	9	7	5	+3	34
7	Cardiff	22	8	9	5	+4	33
8	Birmingham	22	9	6	7	+4	33
9	Sheffield Weds	20	7	8	5	+2	29
10	Brentford	21	8	5	8	+0	29
11	Blackburn	21	6	10	5	+4	28
12	QPR	21	7	7	7	-1	28
13	Reading	21	7	6	8	+2	27
14	Leeds	21	6	8	7	-3	26
15	Nott'm Forest	21	6	7	8	+0	25
16	Preston	21	5	10	6	+0	25
17	Wolves	21	6	7	8	-1	25
18	Fulham	21	5	8	8	-3	23
19	Huddersfield	21	5	6	10	-8	21
20	Milton Keynes Dons	21	5	4	12	-11	19
21	Bristol City	21	4	7	10	-17	19
22	Charlton	21	4	6	11	-15	18
23	Rotherham	21	4	3	14	-16	15
24	Bolton	21	1	10	10	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Middlesbrough	11	8	2	1	+15	26
3	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+5	26
4	Derby	11	6	4	1	+13	22
5	Cardiff	11	6	4	1	+7	22
6	Burnley	10	6	2	2	+6	20
7	QPR	11	4	6	1	+6	18
8	Sheffield Weds	9	5	3	1	+6	18
9	Reading	10	4	4	2	+6	16
10	Brentford	10	5	1	4	-1	16
11	Nott'm Forest	10	4	3	3	+4	15
12	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	+4	15
13	Ipswich	10	3	5	2	+2	14
14	Birmingham	11	4	2	5	-3	14
15	Fulham	11	3	4	4	-1	13
16	Milton Keynes Dons	11	4	1	6	-3	13
17	Charlton	11	3	4	4	-5	13
18	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	-1	12
19	Preston	11	2	6	3	-1	12
20	Wolves	11	2	5	4	-2	11
21	Bolton	10	1	7	2	-1	10
22	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-5	9
23	Bristol City	10	2	3	5	-7	9
24	Rotherham	10	2	2	6	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+6	20
2	Ipswich	11	6	2	3	+1	20
3	Birmingham	11	5	4	2	+7	19
4	Leeds	11	4	5	2	+2	17
5	Derby	9	4	4	1	+4	16
6	Brighton	10	3	7	0	+3	16
7	Hull	10	4	3	3	+4	15
8	Burnley	11	3	6	2	+0	15
9	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+1	14
10	Brentford	11	3	4	4	+1	13
11	Preston	10	3	4	3	+1	13
12	Blackburn	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	-3	11
14	Reading	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Sheffield Weds	11	2	5	4	-4	11
16	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	Nott'm Forest	11	2	4	5	-4	10
18	QPR	10	3	1	6	-7	10
19	Bristol City	11	2	4	5	-10	10
20	Huddersfield	10	2	3	5	-7	9
21	Rotherham	11	2	1	8	-9	7
22	Milton Keynes Dons	10	1	3	6	-8	6
23	Charlton	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Bolton	11	0	3	8	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.