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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Watford

T T U T U

4–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

28%

60%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

60%

52%

Both score Ø 46%

56%

36%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

21 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Watford 11. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	22	3	1	+55	69
2	Man United	26	17	5	4	+33	56
3	Liverpool	26	14	9	3	+28	51
4	Chelsea	25	15	5	5	+26	50
5	Tottenham	26	14	7	5	+27	49
6	Arsenal	26	13	6	7	+16	45
7	Burnley	26	9	9	8	-2	36
8	Leicester	26	9	8	9	+3	35
9	Bournemouth	26	8	7	11	-7	31
10	Everton	26	8	7	11	-16	31
11	Watford	25	7	6	12	-11	27
12	West Ham	26	6	9	11	-14	27
13	Brighton	26	6	9	11	-14	27
14	Crystal Palace	26	6	9	11	-15	27
15	Southampton	26	5	11	10	-10	26
16	Newcastle	26	6	7	13	-12	25
17	Swansea	26	6	6	14	-18	24
18	Stoke	26	6	6	14	-26	24
19	Huddersfield	26	6	6	14	-27	24
20	West Brom	26	3	11	12	-16	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	12	1	0	+36	37
2	Man United	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	32
4	Tottenham	13	8	4	1	+19	28
5	Liverpool	13	7	6	0	+18	27
6	Chelsea	13	8	2	3	+11	26
7	Everton	13	7	2	4	+3	23
8	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
9	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	-1	18
10	Burnley	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Brighton	13	4	6	3	-4	18
12	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-5	18
13	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	-3	17
14	West Ham	12	4	4	4	-3	16
15	Huddersfield	13	4	4	5	-8	16
16	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-3	15
17	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-8	14
18	West Brom	13	2	7	4	-4	13
19	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-4	13
20	Watford	12	3	4	5	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+15	24
3	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+10	24
4	Man United	13	7	3	3	+9	24
5	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+8	21
6	Burnley	13	4	6	3	-1	18
7	Leicester	13	3	5	5	-1	14
8	Watford	13	4	2	7	-2	14
9	Arsenal	13	3	4	6	-6	13
10	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
11	Newcastle	13	3	3	7	-8	12
12	Southampton	12	2	5	5	-7	11
13	West Ham	14	2	5	7	-11	11
14	Swansea	13	2	4	7	-10	10
15	Crystal Palace	13	2	4	7	-12	10
16	Brighton	13	2	3	8	-10	9
17	Everton	13	1	5	7	-19	8
18	Huddersfield	13	2	2	9	-19	8
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Stoke	13	1	3	9	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.