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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Maritimo

T T U S T

4–2

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

36%

20%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

40%

56%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

15 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Maritimo 8. · Vitoria Setubal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	4	0	+55	67
2	Benfica	26	20	5	1	+53	65
3	Sp Lisbon	25	18	5	2	+33	59
4	Sp Braga	26	19	1	6	+35	58
5	Rio Ave	26	12	4	10	+0	40
6	Chaves	25	10	6	9	-6	36
7	Boavista	26	11	3	12	-7	36
8	Maritimo	25	9	6	10	-14	33
9	Portimonense	26	8	6	12	-7	30
10	Guimaraes	26	9	3	14	-15	30
11	Tondela	25	8	4	13	-8	28
12	Belenenses	25	7	7	11	-12	28
13	Aves	26	6	7	13	-10	25
14	Vitoria Setubal	25	5	9	11	-17	24
15	Feirense	26	7	2	17	-12	23
16	Moreirense	26	5	7	14	-18	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	25	5	6	14	-20	21
18	Estoril	26	6	3	17	-30	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	1	0	+37	37
2	Porto	13	12	1	0	+33	37
3	Sp Braga	14	12	0	2	+24	36
4	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+23	35
5	Boavista	13	9	0	4	+5	27
6	Rio Ave	13	8	2	3	+10	26
7	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+4	24
8	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+2	20
9	Vitoria Setubal	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	-6	20
11	Belenenses	12	5	4	3	+2	19
12	Chaves	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	12	4	4	4	-2	16
14	Feirense	13	5	1	7	-3	16
15	Tondela	13	4	2	7	-4	14
16	Estoril	13	4	1	8	-12	13
17	Aves	13	3	3	7	-5	12
18	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	9	3	0	+22	30
2	Benfica	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Sp Lisbon	12	7	3	2	+10	24
4	Sp Braga	12	7	1	4	+11	22
5	Chaves	13	6	1	6	-7	19
6	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-4	14
7	Rio Ave	13	4	2	7	-10	14
8	Aves	13	3	4	6	-5	13
9	Guimaraes	14	3	1	10	-9	10
10	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-9	10
11	Moreirense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
12	Boavista	13	2	3	8	-12	9
13	Belenenses	13	2	3	8	-14	9
14	Maritimo	13	2	3	8	-18	9
15	Estoril	13	2	2	9	-18	8
16	Feirense	13	2	1	10	-9	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	13	1	2	10	-18	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	12	0	4	8	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.