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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Liverpool

U T S S T

3–3

Full-time

Arsenal

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 53%

40%

65%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

45%

40%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

59% Possession 41%

22 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 5

10 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

4 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 9. · Arsenal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	13	3	4	+16	42
2	Man City	21	12	4	5	+18	40
3	Leicester	20	11	7	2	+12	40
4	Tottenham	20	9	9	2	+18	36
5	West Ham	21	9	8	4	+9	35
6	Man United	21	9	7	5	+7	34
7	Stoke	21	9	5	7	+2	32
8	Crystal Palace	21	9	4	8	+3	31
9	Liverpool	20	8	6	6	-2	30
10	Watford	21	8	5	8	+1	29
11	Everton	21	6	10	5	+7	28
12	Southampton	21	7	6	8	+4	27
13	West Brom	21	7	6	8	-5	27
14	Chelsea	21	6	6	9	-3	24
15	Norwich	21	6	5	10	-11	23
16	Bournemouth	21	5	6	10	-14	21
17	Swansea	21	4	7	10	-11	19
18	Sunderland	21	5	3	13	-15	18
19	Newcastle	21	4	6	11	-16	18
20	Aston Villa	21	2	5	14	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	1	2	+17	25
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	10	5	4	1	+11	19
4	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	Southampton	11	5	2	4	+6	17
7	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
8	Stoke	10	5	1	4	+3	16
9	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
10	Chelsea	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+0	15
12	Watford	11	4	2	5	+1	14
13	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	+0	14
14	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
15	Everton	11	3	4	4	+3	13
16	Swansea	11	3	4	4	-5	13
17	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
18	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	+0	11
19	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-5	10
20	Aston Villa	10	1	3	6	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	10	6	3	1	+9	21
2	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
3	West Ham	11	5	4	2	+5	19
4	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+7	17
5	Crystal Palace	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
7	Everton	10	3	6	1	+4	15
8	Man City	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Watford	10	4	3	3	+0	15
10	Man United	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
12	West Brom	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
17	Sunderland	11	2	1	8	-16	7
18	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
19	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.