Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Aalesund
Stabaek
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rosenborg
|
30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +27 | 64 |
| 2 |
Molde
|
30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 |
Brann
|
30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | +14 | 58 |
| 4 |
Haugesund
|
30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | +12 | 53 |
| 5 |
Kristiansund
|
30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | +5 | 46 |
| 6 |
Valerenga
|
30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |
Ranheim
|
30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | -7 | 42 |
| 8 |
Sarpsborg 08
|
30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 41 |
| 9 |
Odd
|
30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +1 | 40 |
| 10 |
Tromso
|
30 | 11 | 3 | 16 | -7 | 36 |
| 11 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
30 | 6 | 14 | 10 | -3 | 32 |
| 12 |
Lillestrom
|
30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -10 | 32 |
| 13 |
Stromsgodset
|
30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -2 | 31 |
| 14 |
Stabaek
|
30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 |
Start
|
30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -24 | 29 |
| 16 |
Sandefjord
|
30 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -22 | 23 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Aalesund
Sogndal
Aalesund
Nest-Sotra
Strommen
Aalesund
Aalesund
Levanger
Sogndal
Aalesund
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.