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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Aston Villa

T U T T U

0–2

Full-time

Arsenal

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

60%

Points per game

0,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

45% Possession 55%

18 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	10	2	4	+15	32
2	Leicester	15	9	5	1	+11	32
3	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+14	30
4	Man United	16	8	5	3	+9	29
5	Tottenham	15	6	8	1	+13	26
6	Crystal Palace	16	8	2	6	+6	26
7	Watford	16	7	4	5	+2	25
8	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
9	Everton	16	5	8	3	+8	23
10	Liverpool	15	6	5	4	+1	23
11	Stoke	16	6	5	5	-1	23
12	Southampton	16	5	6	5	+2	21
13	West Brom	15	5	4	6	-5	19
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-11	16
15	Chelsea	15	4	3	8	-7	15
16	Swansea	16	3	5	8	-9	14
17	Norwich	16	3	5	8	-10	14
18	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-14	13
19	Sunderland	16	3	3	10	-13	12
20	Aston Villa	15	1	3	11	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+14	21
2	Tottenham	8	4	4	0	+9	16
3	Man United	7	4	3	0	+8	15
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+2	14
6	Crystal Palace	9	4	1	4	+3	13
7	Everton	8	3	3	2	+5	12
8	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Watford	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	West Ham	8	2	4	2	+1	10
12	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	+1	9
15	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	9
18	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	2	2	4	-4	8
20	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	8	5	3	0	+9	18
2	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+8	16
3	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
4	Watford	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	Man United	9	4	2	3	+1	14
6	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Stoke	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Everton	8	2	5	1	+3	11
10	Man City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	West Brom	7	3	2	2	-1	11
12	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
13	Southampton	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Chelsea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-9	5
18	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-10	4
19	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-13	4
20	Newcastle	7	1	1	5	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.