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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Southampton

T U S S T

3–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 30%

41%

19%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

44%

52%

Both score Ø 45%

41%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

50% Possession 50%

20 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 7. · Newcastle 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	32	20	9	3	+24	69
2	Tottenham	32	17	11	4	+32	62
3	Arsenal	32	17	8	7	+22	59
4	Man City	31	16	6	9	+24	54
5	Man United	31	15	8	8	+12	53
6	West Ham	32	13	13	6	+12	52
7	Southampton	32	13	8	11	+8	47
8	Stoke	32	13	8	11	-3	47
9	Liverpool	30	12	9	9	+5	45
10	Chelsea	31	11	11	9	+8	44
11	West Brom	31	10	10	11	-7	40
12	Everton	30	9	11	10	+9	38
13	Bournemouth	32	10	8	14	-16	38
14	Watford	31	10	7	14	-6	37
15	Swansea	32	9	10	13	-9	37
16	Crystal Palace	31	9	7	15	-8	34
17	Norwich	32	8	7	17	-21	31
18	Sunderland	31	6	9	16	-19	27
19	Newcastle	31	6	7	18	-27	25
20	Aston Villa	32	3	7	22	-40	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	16	10	5	1	+11	35
2	Tottenham	16	9	5	2	+18	32
3	Man City	16	10	1	5	+21	31
4	Man United	15	9	4	2	+13	31
5	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+13	30
6	West Ham	16	7	7	2	+8	28
7	Southampton	16	8	3	5	+10	27
8	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+1	24
9	Swansea	16	6	5	5	-3	23
10	Chelsea	16	5	7	4	+5	22
11	West Brom	16	6	4	6	-2	22
12	Liverpool	14	5	6	3	+2	21
13	Norwich	16	5	5	6	-2	20
14	Watford	16	5	4	7	+0	19
15	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-7	19
16	Newcastle	15	4	6	5	+0	18
17	Sunderland	15	4	5	6	+1	17
18	Everton	16	4	4	8	+1	16
19	Crystal Palace	16	4	2	10	-6	14
20	Aston Villa	16	2	4	10	-18	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	16	10	4	2	+13	34
2	Tottenham	16	8	6	2	+14	30
3	Arsenal	17	8	5	4	+9	29
4	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
5	Liverpool	16	7	3	6	+3	24
6	Man City	15	6	5	4	+3	23
7	Stoke	16	6	5	5	-4	23
8	Everton	14	5	7	2	+8	22
9	Chelsea	15	6	4	5	+3	22
10	Man United	16	6	4	6	-1	22
11	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-2	20
12	Southampton	16	5	5	6	-2	20
13	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	West Brom	15	4	6	5	-5	18
15	Watford	15	5	3	7	-6	18
16	Swansea	16	3	5	8	-6	14
17	Norwich	16	3	2	11	-19	11
18	Sunderland	16	2	4	10	-20	10
19	Newcastle	16	2	1	13	-27	7
20	Aston Villa	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.