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Conference League
Referee: R Saggi
Lech Poznan
S S S T T
1–3
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 63%
63%
63%
Points per game
2,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
63%
63%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
1,9
1,6
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,45 xG 1,27
44% Possession 56%
8 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lech Poznan Shakhtar Donetsk
27′
🔁 Marlon Gomes
↦ D. Kryskiv
36′
🟨 Marlon Gomes
36′
⚽ Marlon Gomes 0–1
Kaua Elias
Half-time 0–1
T. Ouma 🔁
↦ L. Bengtsson
46′
48′
⚽ Newerton 0–2
Kaua Elias
Ali Gholizadeh 🟨
57′
J. Moutinho 🔁
↦ M. Gurgul
61′
P. Walemark 🔁
↦ A. Gholizadeh
61′
T. Ismaheel 🔁
↦ L. Palma
61′
1–2 M. Ishak ⚽
J. Pereira
70′
72′
🟨 Valeriy Bondar
74′
🟨 Newerton Palmares
74′
🔁 Isaque Silva
↦ Newerton
74′
🔁 Y. Nazaryna
↦
74′
🔁 Lucas Ferreira
↦ Alisson
Y. Agnero 🔁
↦ P. Rodriguez
83′
Antonio Milić 🟨
84′
85′
⚽ Isaque Silva 1–3
88′
🔁 P. Obah
↦ Pedrinho
90′
🟨 Isaque
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
41 B. Mrozek G
2 J. Pereira D
27 W. Monka D
16 A. Milic D
15 M. Gurgul D
99 P. Rodriguez M
43 A. Kozubal M
8 A. Gholizadeh M
77 L. Palma M
14 L. Bengtsson M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (10)
1 P. Andreev
33 M. Pruchniewski
4 J. Moutinho
10 P. Walemark
7 Y. Agnero
20 R. Gumny
72 M. Skrzypczak
88 T. Ismaheel
23 G. Thordarson
6 T. Ouma

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-3-3
31 D. Riznyk G
17 V. Tobias D
5 V. Bondar D
4 Marlon D
13 P. Henrique D
27 O. Ocheretko M
8 D. Kryskiv M
10 Pedrinho M
30 Alisson F
19 Kaua Elias F
11 Newerton F
Bench (12)
23 K. Fesyun
2 L. Traore
6 Marlon Gomes
68 P. Obah
49 Luca Meirelles
14 Isaque Silva
9 M. Shved
29 Y. Nazaryna
26 Y. Konoplya
21 A. Bondarenko
16 I. Azarovi
37 Lucas Ferreira

Coach: Arda Turan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Saggi · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.