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Conference League
Referee: M Barbu
Samsunspor
S U S U T
1–3
Full-time
Vallecano
S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Samsunspor Vallecano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 69%
63%
75%
Points per game
2,0
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
63%
75%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
2,6
3,1
Scored
1,9
2,3
Conceded
0,8
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,58 xG 0,55
63% Possession 37%
11 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 10
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Samsunspor Vallecano
15′
⚽ Alemao 0–1
I. Palazon
Carlo Holse 🟨
16′
1–1 Marius ⚽
C. Holse
21′
Celil Yüksel 🟨
38′
40′
⚽ A. Garcia 1–2
I. Palazon
Half-time 1–2
Olivier Ntcham 🟨
46′
57′
🟨 Luiz Felipe
Josafat Mendes 🟨
63′
E. Kilinc 🔁
↦ A. Makoumbou
64′
Z. Yavru 🔁
↦ J. Mendes
64′
T. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ Y. E. Cift
64′
75′
🔁 P. Diaz
↦ U. Lopez
75′
🔁 O. Valentin
↦ I. Palazon
75′
🔁 J. de Frutos
↦ I. Akhomach
76′
🟨 Ilias Akhomach
78′
⚽ Alemao 1–3
O. Valentin
C. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ Marius
82′
83′
🔁 Pacha
↦ A. Garcia
87′
🔁 G. Gumbau
↦ P. Ciss
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Samsunspor

4-1-4-1
1 O. Kocuk G
55 Y. E. Cift D
37 L. Satka D
4 R. Van Drongelen D
17 L. Tomasson D
29 A. Makoumbou M
2 J. Mendes M
5 C. Yuksel M
10 O. Ntcham M
21 C. Holse M
9 Marius F
Bench (10)
48 E. B. Toruz
71 I. Egribayat
11 E. Kilinc
18 Z. Yavru
28 S. Gonul
24 T. Borevkovic
70 T. Coulibaly
19 C. Ndiaye
23 E. Albak
25 F. Atoen

Coach: Thorsten Fink

Vallecano

4-2-3-1
13 A. Batalla G
2 A. Ratiu D
24 F. Lejeune D
5 Luiz Felipe D
3 P. Chavarria D
17 U. Lopez M
6 P. Ciss M
12 I. Akhomach M
7 I. Palazon M
18 A. Garcia M
9 Alemao F
Bench (11)
1 D. Cardenas
30 A. Molina
8 O. Trejo
15 G. Gumbau
22 Pacha
4 P. Diaz
23 O. Valentin
32 N. Mendy
20 I. Balliu
19 J. de Frutos
10 S. Camello

Coach: Inigo Perez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Barbu · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.