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Conference League
Referee: E Lambrechts
Panathinaikos
T S S T S
3–2
Full-time
Fiorentina
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Panathinaikos Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,6
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
50%
63%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
2,7
4,1
Scored
1,6
2,8
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,46 xG 1,86
51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 6
1 Offside 4
9 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Panathinaikos Fiorentina
1–0 K. Świderski ⚽
N. Maksimović
5′
2–0 N. Maksimović ⚽
19′
20′
⚽ L. Beltrán 2–1
R. Gosens
23′
⚽ N. Fagioli 2–2
R. Gosens
G. Vagiannidis 🔁
↦ G. Kotsiras
34′
Tetê 🟨
39′
Half-time 2–2
46′
ℹ️ Matias Moreno
VAR: Goal cancelled
3–2 Tetê ⚽
F. Đuričić
55′
59′
🔁 D. Cataldi
↦ A. Richardson
A. Gnezda Čerin 🔁
↦ N. Maksimović
76′
F. Ioannidis 🔁
↦ K. Świderski
76′
76′
🔁 A. Guðmundsson
↦ L. Beltrán
76′
🔁 F. Parisi
↦ N. Fagioli
78′
🟨 Dodô
D. Mancini 🔁
↦ F. Đuričić
92′
94′
🟨 Matias Moreno
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Panathinaikos

3-4-3
69 B. Drągowski G
55 Willian Arão D
15 S. Ingason D
25 F. Mladenović D
27 G. Kotsiras M
8 A. Ounahi M
24 M. Siopis M
20 N. Maksimović M
10 Tetê F
19 K. Świderski F
31 F. Đuričić F
Bench (11)
2 G. Vagiannidis
16 A. Gnezda Čerin
7 F. Ioannidis
17 D. Mancini
1 Y. Lodygin
29 A. Jeremejeff
81 K. Lilo
80 T. Dabizas
3 P. Max
26 E. Fikaj
30 A. Bregou

Coach: Rui Vitória

Fiorentina

3-5-1-1
1 P. Terracciano G
22 M. Moreno D
15 P. Comuzzo D
6 L. Ranieri D
2 Dodô M
44 N. Fagioli M
8 R. Mandragora M
24 A. Richardson M
21 R. Gosens M
9 L. Beltrán F
20 M. Kean F
Bench (10)
32 D. Cataldi
10 A. Guðmundsson
65 F. Parisi
17 N. Zaniolo
63 M. Caprini
61 L. Baroncelli
30 T. Martinelli
5 M. Pongračić
64 J. Harder
43 David de Gea

Coach: R. Palladino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Lambrechts · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.