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Conference League
Referee: S Kringstad
Larne
T T T T T
1–0
Full-time
Gent
U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Larne Gent
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 48%
22%
73%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
56%
64%
Both score Ø 45%
44%
45%
Average goals
2,6
3,1
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,67 xG 0,99
24% Possession 76%
6 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 9
3 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Larne Gent
Tomas Cosgrove 🟨
34′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 M. Sonko
↦ F. Surdez
46′
🔁 G. De Meyer
↦ Tiago Araújo
J. Thomson 🔁
↦ M. Randall
55′
J. McEneff 🔁
↦ L. Ives
60′
60′
🔁 M. Dean
↦ T. De Vlieger
60′
🔁 M. Delorge
↦ S. Kums
1–0 T. Cosgrove ⚽
S. Graham
74′
77′
🔁 J. Torunarigha
↦ A. Brown
Sean Graham 🟨
83′
B. Magee 🔁
↦ M. Lusty
91′
C. McKendry 🔁
↦ A. Ryan
91′
D. Sloan 🔁
↦ C. Gallagher
91′
96′
🟨 Stefan Mitrović
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Larne

5-3-2
1 R. Ferguson G
23 T. Cosgrove D
2 S. Want D
20 S. Todd D
4 A. Donnelly D
3 L. Ives D
8 M. Randall M
27 C. Gallagher M
11 S. Graham M
29 A. Ryan F
30 M. Lusty F
Bench (8)
6 J. Thomson
16 J. McEneff
14 B. Magee
7 C. McKendry
25 D. Sloan
9 P. O'Neill
50 D. Collett
31 J. Besant

Coach: G. Haveron

Gent

4-2-3-1
33 D. Roef G
20 Tiago Araújo D
4 T. Watanabe D
13 S. Mitrović D
3 A. Brown D
15 A. Ito M
24 S. Kums M
19 F. Surdez M
6 O. Gandelman M
27 T. De Vlieger M
9 A. Guðjohnsen F
Bench (9)
11 M. Sonko
35 G. De Meyer
21 M. Dean
16 M. Delorge
23 J. Torunarigha
30 C. De Schrevel
8 P. Gerkens
29 Hélio Varela
12 H. Gambor

Coach: W. Vrancken

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Kringstad · 61 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.