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Europa League
Referee: Harm Osmers
Celta
U U S S S
2–1
Full-time
Lille
S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,23 xG 1,56
26% Possession 74%
7 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 7
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 7
2 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 11
4 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Celta Lille
1–0 W. Swedberg ⚽
I. Aspas
1′
10′
🔁 A. Mandi
↦ N. Bentaleb
Hugo Sotelo ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
28′
Hugo Sotelo 🟥
29′
Marcos Alonso 🟨
31′
32′
🟨 Nathan Ngoy
Óscar Mingueza 🟨
33′
40′
🟨 Aïssa Mandi
Half-time 1–0
S. Carreira 🔁
↦ I. Aspas
46′
P. Duran 🔁
↦ B. Iglesias
46′
46′
🔁 M. Fernandez-Pardo
↦ Alexsandro
46′
🔁 T. Santos
↦ T. Meunier
Williot Swedberg 🟨
64′
2–0 C. Starfelt ⚽
M. Roman
69′
J. El Abdellaoui 🔁
↦ W. Swedberg
71′
74′
🔁 S. Diaoune
↦ F. Correia
Ionuț Radu 🟨
81′
86′
⚽ O. Giroud 2–1
S. Diaoune
87′
🔁 C. Verdonk
↦ M. Broholm
H. Alvarez 🔁
↦ O. Mingueza
89′
M. Ristic 🔁
↦ J. Rueda
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Celta

3-4-3
13 I. Radu G
32 J. Rodriguez D
2 C. Starfelt D
20 M. Alonso D
17 J. Rueda M
22 H. Sotelo M
16 M. Roman M
3 O. Mingueza M
10 I. Aspas F
7 B. Iglesias F
19 W. Swedberg F
Bench (12)
1 I. Villar
5 S. Carreira
9 F. Jutgla
11 F. Cervi
12 M. Fernandez
15 B. Zaragoza
18 P. Duran
21 M. Ristic
23 H. Alvarez
29 Y. Lago
31 H. Burcio
39 J. El Abdellaoui

Coach: Claudio Giraldez

Lille

4-4-1-1
1 B. Ozer G
12 T. Meunier D
3 N. Ngoy D
4 Alexsandro D
15 R. Perraud D
14 M. Broholm M
17 N. Mukau M
6 N. Bentaleb M
27 F. Correia M
10 H. Haraldsson F
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (11)
16 A. Bodart
40 T. Sajous
7 M. Fernandez-Pardo
18 C. Mbemba
22 T. Santos
23 A. Mandi
24 C. Verdonk
35 S. Diaoune
38 A. Goffi
39 L. Baret
42 S. Boussadia

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Harm Osmers · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.