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Ligue 1
Referee: J Brisard
Paris SG
U S S S T
3–0
Full-time
Lille
T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,2
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 65%
71%
59%
Points per game
2,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
47%
41%
Both score Ø 41%
41%
41%
Average goals
3,1
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,9
Conceded
0,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,40 xG 1,14
61% Possession 39%
13 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 6
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Lille 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 +18 +8.4 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 +22 +16.4 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 +19 +10.1 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 +11 +6.6 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 +8 +7.1 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 +5 -0.3 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 +5 +5.1 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 +2 +2.4 23
9 Monaco 18 7 2 9 -5 +2.8 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 -2 -11.9 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 -4 +1.3 22
12 Lorient 18 5 7 6 -7 +1.9 22
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 -8 -2.4 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 -10 -10.4 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 -9 -6.5 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 -12 -12.7 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 -13 -3.5 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 -20 -14.5 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paris SG Lille
1–0 O. Dembele
Vitinha
13′
Half-time 1–0
I. Zabarnyi 🔁
↦ S. Mayulu
46′
62′
🟨 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson
B. Barcola 🔁
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
63′
2–0 O. Dembele
D. Doue
64′
G. Ramos 🔁
↦ O. Dembele
77′
77′
🔁 O. Sahraoui
↦ N. Mukau
77′
🔁 M. Broholm
↦ E. Mbappe
77′
🔁 S. Diaoune
↦ O. Giroud
L. Hernandez 🔁
↦ D. Doue
84′
87′
🔁 T. Meunier
↦ T. Santos
90′
🔁 F. Correia
↦ H. Haraldsson
3–0 B. Barcola
90′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
30 L. Chevalier G
33 W. Zaire-Emery D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
24 S. Mayulu M
17 Vitinha M
8 F. Ruiz M
14 D. Doue F
10 O. Dembele F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (8)
21 L. Hernandez
9 G. Ramos
4 L. Beraldo
89 R. Marin
6 I. Zabarnyi
60 M. James
45 N. Nsoki
29 B. Barcola

Coach: Enrique Luis

Lille

4-3-3
1 B. Ozer G
22 T. Santos D
3 N. Ngoy D
23 A. Mandi D
15 R. Perraud D
17 N. Mukau M
6 N. Bentaleb M
32 A. Bouaddi M
8 E. Mbappe F
9 O. Giroud F
10 H. Haraldsson F
Bench (9)
27 F. Correia
11 O. Sahraoui
16 A. Bodart
14 M. Broholm
38 A. Goffi
12 T. Meunier
35 S. Diaoune
4 Alexsandro
18 C. Mbemba

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,31
U
5,52
B
8,43
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,43
U2,5
2,67
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.