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Europa League
Referee: Igor Pajač
Sp Braga
S U U T S
1–0
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 12/6 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,6
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
0,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,55 xG 1,79
57% Possession 43%
6 Shots 12
0 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Sp Braga Nott'm Forest
Tiago Sá 🟨
-5′
Sikou Niakaté 🟨
8′
Half-time 0–0
Vitor Carvalho 🔁
↦ S. Niakate
46′
Gabriel Martínez 🟨
50′
0–1 R. Yates ⚽
own goal
54′
J. Moutinho 🔁
↦ F. Grillitsch
62′
P. Victor 🔁
↦ F. Navarro
62′
68′
🔁 N. Williams
↦ O. Aina
68′
🔁 C. Hudson-Odoi
↦ J. McAtee
68′
🔁 E. Anderson
↦ Douglas Luiz
M. Dorgeles 🔁
↦ R. Horta
75′
75′
🔁 N. Dominguez
↦ D. Bakwa
83′
🔁 I. Sangare
↦ R. Yates
84′
🟨 Neco Williams
L. Lelo 🔁
↦ G. Martinez
85′
89′
🟨 Dan Ndoye
94′
🟥 Elliot Anderson
95′
🟨 Ibrahim Sangaré
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sp Braga

3-4-2-1
1 L. Hornicek G
14 G. Lagerbielke D
4 S. Niakate D
26 B. Arrey-Mbi D
2 V. Gomez M
29 Gorby M
27 F. Grillitsch M
77 G. Martinez M
21 R. Horta F
50 D. Rodrigues F
39 F. Navarro F
Bench (12)
12 T. Sa
36 A. Bellaarouch
5 L. Lelo
6 Vitor Carvalho
8 J. Moutinho
15 P. Oliveira
17 Gabriel Moscardo
18 P. Victor
20 M. Dorgeles
41 Y. da Rocha
72 J. Aragao
95 S. Vidigal

Coach: Carlos Vicens

Nott'm Forest

4-4-2
26 M. Sels G
37 N. Savona D
31 N. Milenkovic D
4 Morato D
34 O. Aina D
24 J. McAtee M
12 Douglas Luiz M
22 R. Yates M
29 D. Bakwa M
10 M. Gibbs-White F
14 D. Ndoye F
Bench (12)
18 A. Gunn
67 K. Willows
3 N. Williams
6 I. Sangare
7 C. Hudson-Odoi
8 E. Anderson
16 N. Dominguez
44 Z. Abbott
51 A. Whitehall
58 J. Thompson
61 J. Sinclair
64 B. Hammond

Coach: Vitor Pereira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.