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Superligaen
Referee: M Krogh
Midtjylland
U S S S S
1–1
Full-time
Aarhus
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Midtjylland Aarhus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
3,3
2,2
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Superligaen · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 66%
62%
69%
Points per game
2,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
62%
62%
Both score Ø 66%
62%
69%
Average goals
3,8
3,1
Scored
2,7
2,1
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,12 xG 0,44
65% Possession 35%
17 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
10 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 16
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Midtjylland 2. · Aarhus 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Aarhus 13 9 3 1 +14 +12.3 30
2 Midtjylland 13 8 4 1 +20 +1.6 28
3 Brondby 14 9 1 4 +12 +9.9 28
4 FC Copenhagen 14 7 4 3 +9 +12.2 25
5 Sonderjyske 14 5 4 5 +1 -0.6 19
6 Nordsjaelland 14 6 0 8 -5 -3.0 18
7 Odense 14 5 3 6 -10 +2.3 18
8 Randers FC 14 5 2 7 -4 +0.2 17
9 Silkeborg 14 5 2 7 -7 -7.4 17
10 Viborg 14 5 1 8 -4 -4.7 16
11 Fredericia 14 3 2 9 -14 -12.5 11
12 Vejle 14 1 4 9 -12 -10.4 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Midtjylland Aarhus
Philip Billing 🟨
2′
Franculino Djú 🟨
27′
35′
T. Bech 0–1
K. Yakob
Half-time 0–1
K. Mbabu 🔁
↦ A. Simsir
46′
M. Gogorza 🔁
↦ Junior Brumado
46′
Martin Erlić 🟨
47′
Denil Castillo 🟨
50′
58′
🟨 Patrick Mortensen
66′
🟨 Rasmus Carstensen
Cho Gue-Sung 🔁
↦ M. Erlic
69′
78′
🔁 J. Jensen-Abbew
↦ N. Poulsen
78′
🔁 S. Tchamche
↦ H. Dalsgaard
Paulinho 🔁
↦ V. Bak
80′
V. Byskov 🔁
↦ D. Castillo
80′
1–1 Franculino
81′
87′
🔁 M. Solbakken
↦ R. Carstensen
87′
🔁 F. Emmery
↦ K. Yakob
91′
🟨 Tobias Bech
95′
🔁 Y. Badji
↦ T. Bech
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Midtjylland

3-4-2-1
16 E. Olafsson G
4 O. Diao D
6 M. Erlic D
22 M. Bech Sorensen D
11 D. Osorio M
21 D. Castillo M
8 P. Billing M
55 V. Bak M
74 Junior Brumado F
58 A. Simsir F
7 Franculino F
Bench (9)
1 J. Lossl
3 Lee Han-Beom
43 K. Mbabu
29 Paulinho
80 Dani Silva
19 P. Bravo
20 V. Byskov
10 Cho Gue-Sung
41 M. Gogorza

Coach: Mike Tullberg

Aarhus

3-4-3
1 J. Hansen G
2 F. Beijmo D
3 H. Dalsgaard D
19 E. Kahl D
29 R. Carstensen M
17 K. Yakob M
6 N. Poulsen M
11 G. Links M
31 T. Bech F
9 P. Mortensen F
10 K. Arnstad
Bench (9)
22 L. Wahlstedt
40 J. Jensen-Abbew
56 C. Storch
7 M. Solbakken
8 S. Jorgensen
15 Y. Badji
39 F. Emmery
20 T. Kristjansson
27 S. Tchamche

Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Krogh · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.