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Europa League
Referee: S Sozza
Marseille
S U S T U
4–3
Full-time
Ajax
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,7
4,2
Scored
1,0
2,5
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
75%
33%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
2,5
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

3,00 xG 1,38
48% Possession 52%
19 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 2
3 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Sep -23 Ajax – Marseille 3–3

Match report

Marseille Ajax
1–0 P. Aubameyang ⚽
9′
10′
⚽ B. Brobbey 1–1
S. Berghuis
2–1 C. Mbemba ⚽
J. Clauss
26′
30′
⚽ B. Brobbey 2–2
S. Berghuis
Half-time 2–2
46′
🔁 K. Hlynsson
↦ Carlos Forbs
3–2 P. Aubameyang ⚽
A. Harit
47′
63′
🟥 Steven Berghuis
63′
ℹ️ Steven Berghuis
VAR: Card upgrade
I. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ J. Correa
66′
Renan Lodi 🟨
69′
71′
🟨 Kenneth Taylor
76′
🟨 Kristian Hlynsson
77′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ K. Taylor
77′
🔁 A. Martha
↦ B. Sosa
79′
⚽ C. Akpom 3–3
K. Hlynsson
A. Murillo 🔁
↦ Renan Lodi
87′
A. Ounahi 🔁
↦ A. Harit
87′
Vítinha 🔁
↦ J. Veretout
87′
Ismaïla Sarr 🟨
90′
93′
🟨 Devyne Rensch
4–3 P. Aubameyang ⚽
93′
94′
🔁 J. Banel
↦ B. Tahirović
94′
🔁 A. Salah-Eddine
↦ B. Brobbey
B. Meïté 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
95′
98′
🟨 Jorrel Hato
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Marseille

4-4-2
16 Pau López G
7 J. Clauss D
4 S. Gigot D
99 C. Mbemba D
12 Renan Lodi D
23 I. Sarr M
19 G. Kondogbia M
27 J. Veretout M
20 J. Correa M
10 P. Aubameyang F
11 A. Harit F
Bench (10)
29 I. Ndiaye
62 A. Murillo
8 A. Ounahi
9 Vítinha
18 B. Meïté
34 B. Nadir
36 Rubén Blanco
37 E. Soglo
24 F. Mughe
5 L. Balerdi

Coach: G. Gattuso

Ajax

4-2-3-1
40 D. Ramaj G
3 A. Gaaei D
2 D. Rensch D
4 J. Hato D
25 B. Sosa D
33 B. Tahirović M
8 K. Taylor M
11 Carlos Forbs M
23 S. Berghuis M
7 S. Bergwijn M
9 B. Brobbey F
Bench (12)
38 K. Hlynsson
10 C. Akpom
42 A. Martha
49 J. Banel
17 A. Salah-Eddine
51 C. Setford
47 T. Gooijer
39 M. Godts
30 G. Ávila
1 G. Rulli
19 G. Mikautadze
18 J. Medić

Coach: J. van 't Schip

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Sozza · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.