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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Real Madrid
U S U S T
1–2
Full-time
Man City
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
4,2
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 70%
80%
60%
Points per game
2,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 40%
40%
40%
Average goals
3,4
3,0
Scored
2,4
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,50 xG 2,60
52% Possession 48%
16 Shots 12
1 Shots on target 8
8 Blocked shots 4
6 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

19. Feb -25 Real Madrid – Man City 3–1 11. Feb -25 Man City – Real Madrid 2–3 17. Apr -24 Man City – Real Madrid 1–1 9. Apr -24 Real Madrid – Man City 3–3 17. May -23 Man City – Real Madrid 4–0

Match report

Real Madrid Man City
Vinícius Júnior ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
3′
11′
🟨 Phil Foden
1–0 Rodrygo ⚽
J. Bellingham
28′
35′
⚽ N. O'Reilly 1–1
J. Gvardiol
42′
ℹ️ Erling Haaland
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Antonio Rüdiger 🟨
43′
43′
⚽ E. Haaland 1–2
Half-time 1–2
A. Guler 🔁
↦ G. Garcia
58′
B. Diaz 🔁
↦ D. Ceballos
67′
70′
🔁 T. Reijnders
↦ P. Foden
70′
🔁 O. Marmoush
↦ E. Haaland
70′
🔁 Savinho
↦ R. Cherki
76′
🟨 Nico O'Reilly
Endrick 🔁
↦ R. Asencio
79′
Rodrygo 🟨
87′
Álvaro Carreras 🟨
88′
88′
🔁 N. Ake
↦ J. Doku
90′
🟨 Bernardo Silva
Full-time 1–2

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.