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Champions League
Referee: S Vincic
Benfica
U S S S U
2–0
Full-time
Napoli
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/5 matches
Win Ø 42%
44%
40%
Points per game
1,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 31%
22%
40%
Both score Ø 26%
11%
40%
Average goals
1,9
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
0,9
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,22 xG 0,64
40% Possession 60%
13 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 6
4 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 21
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Benfica Napoli
1–0 R. Rios ⚽
20′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Politano
↦ S. Beukema
46′
🔁 L. Spinazzola
↦ M. Olivera
2–0 L. Barreiro ⚽
R. Rios
49′
52′
🟨 Noa Lang
59′
🔁 Juan Jesus
↦ A. Buongiorno
74′
🔁 L. Lucca
↦ N. Lang
A. Silva 🔁
↦ G. Sudakov
76′
V. Pavlidis 🔁
↦ F. Ivanovic
76′
Amar Dedić 🟨
78′
81′
🔁 A. Vergara
↦ E. Elmas
87′
🟨 Antonio Vergara
T. Freitas 🔁
↦ F. Aursnes
94′
J. Neto 🔁
↦ L. Barreiro
95′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
44 T. Araujo D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
20 R. Rios M
5 E. Barrenechea M
8 F. Aursnes M
18 L. Barreiro M
10 G. Sudakov M
9 F. Ivanovic F
Bench (12)
24 S. Soares
4 A. Silva
14 V. Pavlidis
16 Manu
21 A. Schjelderup
25 G. Prestianni
62 J. Neto
66 J. Wynder
67 R. Rego
68 J. Veloso
84 J. Rego
88 T. Freitas

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Napoli

3-4-2-1
32 V. Milinkovic-Savic G
31 S. Beukema D
13 A. Rrahmani D
4 A. Buongiorno D
22 G. Di Lorenzo M
20 E. Elmas M
8 S. McTominay M
17 M. Olivera M
7 David Neres F
70 N. Lang F
19 R. Hojlund F
Bench (8)
14 N. Contini
25 M. Ferrante
5 Juan Jesus
21 M. Politano
26 A. Vergara
27 L. Lucca
37 L. Spinazzola
69 G. Ambrosino

Coach: Antonio Conte

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vincic · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.