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Championship

Referee: Thomas Kirk

Derby

S T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Millwall

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

37%

53%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

74%

42%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,20 xG 0,91

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 15. · Millwall 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	13	5	2	+29	+20.2	44
2	Middlesbrough	18	10	5	3	+6	+3.7	35
3	Millwall	19	10	4	5	-2	+3.3	34
4	Preston	20	8	8	4	+6	-3.8	32
5	Ipswich	19	8	7	4	+14	+15.4	31
6	QPR	20	9	4	7	-3	+3.4	31
7	Stoke	19	9	3	7	+8	-2.6	30
8	Southampton	19	8	5	6	+6	+8.2	29
9	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+5	+2.0	29
10	Birmingham	20	8	4	8	+4	+10.8	28
11	Watford	20	7	7	6	+2	+5.5	28
12	Hull	18	8	4	6	+0	-11.1	28
13	Wrexham	19	6	9	4	+3	-4.8	27
14	Leicester	19	7	6	6	+1	-3.6	27
15	Derby	19	7	5	7	-2	-6.4	26
16	West Brom	20	7	4	9	-5	+0.7	25
17	Sheffield United	20	7	2	11	-4	+7.6	23
18	Swansea	20	6	5	9	-6	-9.6	23
19	Charlton	19	6	5	8	-6	-8.8	23
20	Blackburn	19	6	4	9	-5	+6.3	22
21	Oxford	20	4	7	9	-7	-6.7	19
22	Portsmouth	19	4	5	10	-11	-6.8	17
23	Norwich	20	3	5	12	-11	-8.3	14
24	Sheffield Weds	19	1	6	12	-22	-14.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	2	0	+18	+9.0	23
2	Watford	11	6	4	1	+7	+6.1	22
3	Birmingham	9	6	2	1	+13	+11.9	20
4	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+4	+0.0	20
5	Ipswich	10	5	4	1	+9	+12.8	19
6	Preston	11	5	4	2	+4	-1.8	19
7	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
8	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.7	17
9	QPR	10	5	2	3	+2	+6.7	17
10	Hull	9	5	2	2	+1	-3.8	17
11	Stoke	9	5	1	3	+8	+2.5	16
12	West Brom	9	4	4	1	+3	+4.5	16
13	Wrexham	10	4	4	2	+2	+2.4	16
14	Swansea	11	4	3	4	-2	-3.3	15
15	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+3	+0.3	14
16	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+0	-2.2	14
17	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.9	13
18	Derby	10	3	3	4	-3	-0.9	12
19	Sheffield United	10	3	2	5	+0	+7.4	11
20	Portsmouth	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.7	11
21	Oxford	9	2	4	3	-3	+0.1	10
22	Blackburn	10	1	3	6	-7	+3.6	6
23	Norwich	9	1	1	7	-6	-0.4	4
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-19	-7.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	11	6	3	2	+11	+11.1	21
2	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+2	+2.7	16
3	Middlesbrough	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.7	15
4	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
5	Millwall	9	4	3	2	-2	-0.9	15
6	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	-5.5	14
7	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+0	-6.6	14
8	Stoke	10	4	2	4	+0	-5.1	14
9	QPR	10	4	2	4	-5	-3.3	14
10	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.9	13
11	Ipswich	9	3	3	3	+5	+2.6	12
12	Southampton	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.5	12
13	Sheffield United	10	4	0	6	-4	+0.2	12
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	+1	-7.2	11
15	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
16	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-5	-8.0	10
17	Oxford	11	2	3	6	-4	-6.8	9
18	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.6	9
19	West Brom	11	3	0	8	-8	-3.7	9
20	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-4	-6.3	8
21	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	9	1	4	4	-3	-7.2	7
23	Watford	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.6	6
24	Portsmouth	9	1	3	5	-9	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.