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Champions League
Referee: D Orsato
Man City
U S S U S
1–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,2
3,5
Scored
3,0
2,5
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 84%
89%
78%
Points per game
2,8
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 78%
89%
67%
Average goals
4,3
3,6
Scored
3,0
2,3
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,66 xG 1,44
67% Possession 33%
33 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 3
12 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
18 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -24 Real Madrid – Man City 3–3 17. May -23 Man City – Real Madrid 4–0 9. May -23 Real Madrid – Man City 1–1

Match report

Man City Real Madrid
12′
⚽ Rodrygo 0–1
38′
🟨 Daniel Carvajal
Half-time 0–1
Jack Grealish 🟨
59′
Joško Gvardiol 🟨
61′
J. Doku 🔁
↦ J. Grealish
72′
1–1 K. De Bruyne ⚽
76′
79′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ T. Kroos
84′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Rodrygo
Rodri 🟨
90′
J. Álvarez 🔁
↦ E. Haaland
90′
94′
🟨 Ferland Mendy
102′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ Vinícius Júnior
110′
🔁 Éder Militão
↦ Dani Carvajal
M. Kovačić 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
112′
J. Stones 🔁
↦ M. Akanji
112′
2–1 J. Álvarez ⚽
121′
122′
❌ L. Modrić
penalty missed
Bernardo Silva ❌
penalty missed
123′
124′
⚽ J. Bellingham 2–2
M. Kovačić ❌
penalty missed
125′
3–2 P. Foden ⚽
126′
127′
⚽ Lucas Vázquez 3–3
128′
⚽ Nacho 3–4
4–4 Ederson ⚽
129′
130′
⚽ A. Rüdiger 4–5
Full-time 4–5

Line-ups

Man City

4-1-4-1
31 Ederson G
2 K. Walker D
25 M. Akanji D
3 Rúben Dias D
24 J. Gvardiol D
16 Rodri M
47 P. Foden M
17 K. De Bruyne M
20 Bernardo Silva M
10 J. Grealish M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (11)
11 J. Doku
19 J. Álvarez
8 M. Kovačić
5 J. Stones
21 Sergio Gómez
18 S. Ortega
27 Matheus Nunes
82 R. Lewis
33 S. Carson
52 O. Bobb
6 N. Aké

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
12 E. Camavinga M
8 T. Kroos M
15 F. Valverde M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo M
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (10)
10 L. Modrić
21 Brahim Díaz
17 Lucas Vázquez
3 Éder Militão
25 Kepa
24 A. Güler
30 Fran González
19 Dani Ceballos
20 Fran García
14 Joselu

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.