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Championship

Referee: Lewis Smith

Preston

S U U S T

0–1

Full-time

Birmingham

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

30%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,34 xG 0,83

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 8. · Birmingham 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	10	6	4	0	+22	+14.7	22
2	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.3	20
3	Stoke	10	5	3	2	+6	+0.3	18
4	Leicester	10	4	5	1	+5	-1.6	17
5	West Brom	10	5	2	3	+0	+0.6	17
6	Millwall	10	5	2	3	-2	-0.4	17
7	Bristol City	10	4	4	2	+6	+4.1	16
8	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	-0.8	16
9	Charlton	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.6	15
10	Hull	10	4	3	3	-1	-7.2	15
11	QPR	10	4	3	3	-2	-1.2	15
12	Ipswich	9	3	4	2	+6	+7.0	13
13	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+0	-2.4	13
14	Portsmouth	10	3	4	3	-1	-1.6	13
15	Watford	10	3	3	4	-1	+1.9	12
16	Birmingham	10	3	3	4	-4	+4.3	12
17	Southampton	9	2	5	2	-1	+6.6	11
18	Wrexham	10	2	4	4	-2	-5.2	10
19	Oxford	10	2	3	5	-2	-0.0	9
20	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-4	-6.2	8
21	Derby	10	1	5	4	-5	-6.3	8
22	Blackburn	9	2	1	6	-6	+1.5	7
23	Sheffield United	10	2	0	8	-12	-1.3	6
24	Sheffield Weds	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.3	13
2	Coventry	5	3	2	0	+11	+6.8	11
3	Ipswich	5	3	2	0	+8	+6.2	11
4	Preston	5	3	2	0	+4	-0.4	11
5	Charlton	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.1	10
6	Stoke	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
7	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.8	10
8	Hull	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
9	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.3	9
10	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.6	8
11	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.7	8
12	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.6	8
13	Portsmouth	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.2	7
14	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	+1.1	6
15	Millwall	5	2	0	3	-5	-1.2	6
16	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.5	5
17	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.8	5
18	Oxford	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
19	Wrexham	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.5	3
20	Derby	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.2	3
21	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.6	3
22	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-4	-0.5	1
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-13	-6.6	1
24	Norwich	5	0	0	5	-5	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	5	3	2	0	+11	+7.9	11
2	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	+3.2	11
3	Millwall	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
4	West Brom	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.0	9
5	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+3	-1.2	8
6	Leicester	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.8	8
7	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	-5.0	8
8	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.0	7
9	Wrexham	5	2	1	2	+1	-4.7	7
10	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.4	7
11	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.8	7
12	Portsmouth	5	1	3	1	+0	-1.3	6
13	Southampton	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.1	6
14	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-2	+2.1	6
15	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.1	5
16	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.4	5
17	Hull	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.9	5
18	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.1	5
19	Charlton	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.7	5
20	Oxford	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.3	4
21	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.5	4
22	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-7	-1.9	3
23	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
24	Watford	5	0	2	3	-3	-0.9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.