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Championship

Referee: Anthony Backhouse

Bristol City

T U U T S

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 31%

40%

22%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

56%

Both score Ø 69%

60%

78%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,63 xG 2,18

33% Possession 67%

13 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 9. · Southampton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	11	7	4	0	+23	+16.5	25
2	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.3	20
3	Millwall	11	6	2	3	+0	+0.6	20
4	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+4	-1.3	18
5	Stoke	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.8	18
6	Hull	11	5	3	3	+0	-7.1	18
7	Leicester	11	4	5	2	+4	-1.6	17
8	West Brom	10	5	2	3	+0	+0.6	17
9	Bristol City	10	4	4	2	+6	+4.1	16
10	Preston	11	4	4	3	+2	-0.3	16
11	QPR	10	4	3	3	-2	-1.2	15
12	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	-3	+3.8	15
13	Ipswich	10	3	4	3	+3	+7.8	13
14	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+0	-2.4	13
15	Portsmouth	11	3	4	4	-2	-3.4	13
16	Watford	10	3	3	4	-1	+1.9	12
17	Southampton	9	2	5	2	-1	+6.6	11
18	Derby	11	2	5	4	-4	-6.4	11
19	Wrexham	10	2	4	4	-2	-5.2	10
20	Oxford	10	2	3	5	-2	-0.0	9
21	Sheffield United	11	3	0	8	-10	-0.9	9
22	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-5	-6.0	8
23	Blackburn	10	2	1	7	-8	+1.2	7
24	Sheffield Weds	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.3	13
2	Hull	6	4	1	1	+2	-2.2	13
3	Coventry	5	3	2	0	+11	+6.8	11
4	Ipswich	6	3	2	1	+5	+7.0	11
5	Preston	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.1	11
6	Charlton	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.1	10
7	Stoke	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
8	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.8	10
9	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.3	9
10	Millwall	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.1	9
11	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.6	8
12	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.7	8
13	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.6	8
14	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	-2	-2.0	7
15	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	+1.1	6
16	Derby	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
17	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.5	5
18	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.8	5
19	Oxford	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
20	Wrexham	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.5	3
21	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.6	3
22	Blackburn	5	0	1	4	-6	-0.9	1
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-13	-6.6	1
24	Norwich	5	0	0	5	-5	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+12	+9.6	14
2	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	+3.2	11
3	Millwall	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
4	West Brom	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.0	9
5	Leicester	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.9	8
6	Stoke	6	2	2	2	+1	-2.3	8
7	Norwich	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.8	8
8	Charlton	6	2	2	2	+0	-3.4	8
9	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.0	7
10	Wrexham	5	2	1	2	+1	-4.7	7
11	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.4	7
12	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.8	7
13	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.0	7
14	Portsmouth	5	1	3	1	+0	-1.3	6
15	Southampton	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.1	6
16	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-2	+2.1	6
17	Sheffield United	6	2	0	4	-5	-1.6	6
18	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.1	5
19	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.4	5
20	Hull	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.9	5
21	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.1	5
22	Oxford	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.3	4
23	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
24	Watford	5	0	2	3	-3	-0.9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.