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Champions League
Referee: G Nyberg
Dortmund
T T T T U
3–1
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
2,3
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
57%
29%
Points per game
1,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
86%
57%
Both score Ø 50%
57%
43%
Average goals
4,3
2,9
Scored
2,7
1,0
Conceded
1,6
1,9
Goal diff per game
+1,1
-0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,43 xG 0,39
45% Possession 55%
15 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
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Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Nyberg · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.