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Champions League
Referee: H Meler
Shakhtar Donetsk
U T T S T
1–5
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Shakhtar Donetsk Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
1,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
20%
60%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 40%
40%
40%
Average goals
2,4
3,8
Scored
0,8
2,4
Conceded
1,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,34 xG 3,18
34% Possession 66%
12 Shots 21
4 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Shakhtar Donetsk Bayern Munich
1–0 Kevin ⚽
O. Zubkov
5′
7′
🟨 Leroy Sané
11′
⚽ K. Laimer 1–1
M. Olise
45′
⚽ T. Müller 1–2
J. Musiala
Half-time 1–2
L. Traoré 🔁
↦ D. Sikan
46′
D. Kryskiv 🔁
↦ Marlon Gomes
46′
Dmytro Kryskiv 🟨
55′
65′
🔁 M. Tel
↦ L. Sané
65′
🔁 S. Boey
↦ Raphaël Guerreiro
70′
⚽ M. Olise 1–3
Pedrinho 🔁
↦ A. Bondarenko
77′
Eguinaldo 🔁
↦ Kevin
77′
Lassina Traoré 🟨
82′
82′
🟨 Leon Goretzka
Newerton 🔁
↦ O. Zubkov
83′
87′
⚽ J. Musiala 1–4
88′
🔁 E. Dier
↦ Kim Min-Jae
88′
🔁 A. Ibrahimović
↦ T. Müller
89′
🔁 A. Aznou
↦ K. Laimer
93′
⚽ M. Olise 1–5
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
26 Y. Konoplia D
5 V. Bondar D
18 A. Ghram D
22 M. Matviienko D
30 Marlon Gomes M
11 O. Zubkov M
21 A. Bondarenko M
10 H. Sudakov M
37 Kevin M
14 D. Sikan F
Bench (12)
2 L. Traoré
8 D. Kryskiv
38 Pedrinho
7 Eguinaldo
39 Newerton
6 T. Stepanenko
9 M. Shved
72 K. Fesiun
29 Y. Nazaryna
74 M. Faryna
16 I. Azarovi
17 Vinícius Tobias

Coach: M. Pusic

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
18 D. Peretz G
27 K. Laimer D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
22 Raphaël Guerreiro D
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
17 M. Olise M
42 J. Musiala M
10 L. Sané M
25 T. Müller F
Bench (10)
39 M. Tel
23 S. Boey
15 E. Dier
20 A. Ibrahimović
49 A. Aznou
45 A. Pavlović
36 N. Aséko Nkili
31 N. Irankunda
48 L. Klanac
35 M. Schmitt

Coach: V. Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Meler · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.