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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Aston Villa
S S U T U
4–2
Full-time
Celtic
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Celtic
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,3
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 50%
57%
43%
Points per game
1,9
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
29%
43%
Both score Ø 36%
14%
57%
Average goals
1,9
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,6
Conceded
0,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

3,79 xG 0,82
58% Possession 42%
20 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
4 Free kicks against 15
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Aston Villa Celtic
1–0 M. Rogers ⚽
J. Ramsey
3′
2–0 M. Rogers ⚽
O. Watkins
5′
J. McGinn 🔁
↦ M. Cash
30′
36′
⚽ A. Idah 2–1
38′
⚽ A. Idah 2–2
R. Hatate
Half-time 3–2
3–2 O. Watkins ⚽
J. Ramsey
60′
Ollie Watkins ❌
penalty missed
67′
73′
🔁 L. Palma
↦ Yang Hyun-Jun
73′
🔁 Paulo Bernardo
↦ A. Engels
I. Maatsen 🔁
↦ L. Digne
74′
79′
🔁 D. Cummings
↦ A. Idah
82′
🔁 L. McCowan
↦ R. Hatate
83′
🔁 D. Murray
↦ L. Scales
4–2 M. Rogers ⚽
O. Watkins
91′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martínez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
44 B. Kamara D
12 L. Digne D
26 L. Bogarde M
8 Y. Tielemans M
31 L. Bailey M
27 M. Rogers M
41 J. Ramsey M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (9)
7 J. McGinn
22 I. Maatsen
9 J. Durán
20 K. Nedeljković
25 R. Olsen
72 K. Young
50 S. Swinkels
66 T. Patterson
48 O. Zych

Coach: Unai Emery

Celtic

4-3-3
1 K. Schmeichel G
2 A. Johnston D
6 A. Trusty D
5 L. Scales D
3 G. Taylor D
27 A. Engels M
42 C. McGregor M
41 R. Hatate M
10 N. Kühn F
9 A. Idah F
13 Yang Hyun-Jun F
Bench (10)
7 L. Palma
28 Paulo Bernardo
55 D. Cummings
14 L. McCowan
47 D. Murray
37 A. Montgomery
56 A. Ralston
17 M. Nawrocki
29 S. Bain
12 V. Sinisalo

Coach: B. Rodgers

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.