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Europa League
Referee: T Stieler
Marseille
U T U U T
3–1
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,7
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/1 matches
Win Ø 22%
43%
0%
Points per game
1,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 86%
71%
100%
Both score Ø 86%
71%
100%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
2,3
2,0
Conceded
1,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,69 xG 1,71
50% Possession 50%
19 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 5
8 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 4
1 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 19
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Feb -24 Shakhtar Donetsk – Marseille 2–2

Match report

Marseille Shakhtar Donetsk
12′
⚽ H. Sudakov 0–1
Samuel Gigot 🟨
17′
1–1 P. Aubameyang ⚽
A. Harit
23′
45′
🟨 Eguinaldo
Half-time 1–1
47′
🟨 Yukhym Konoplia
58′
🟨 Mykola Matviyenko
I. Sarr 🔁
↦ F. Moumbagna
64′
J. Veretout 🔁
↦ A. Ounahi
64′
2–1 I. Sarr ⚽
P. Aubameyang
74′
80′
🟨 Taras Stepanenko
3–1 G. Kondogbia ⚽
81′
82′
🔁 M. Shved
↦ O. Zubkov
82′
🔁 L. Traoré
↦ D. Sikan
83′
🔁 Newerton
↦ T. Stepanenko
84′
🔁 D. Kryskiv
↦ A. Bondarenko
84′
🔁 Pedrinho
↦ I. Azarovi
I. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
85′
92′
🟨 Yaroslav Rakitskyi
E. Soglo 🔁
↦ A. Harit
94′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Marseille

3-4-1-2
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
4 S. Gigot D
18 B. Meïté D
7 J. Clauss M
8 A. Ounahi M
19 G. Kondogbia M
3 Q. Merlin M
11 A. Harit F
14 F. Moumbagna F
10 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (8)
23 I. Sarr
27 J. Veretout
29 I. Ndiaye
37 E. Soglo
20 J. Correa
36 Rubén Blanco
44 Luis Henrique
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu

Coach: J. Gasset

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
26 Y. Konoplia D
22 M. Matviienko D
44 Y. Rakitskyi D
16 I. Azarovi D
6 T. Stepanenko M
11 O. Zubkov M
21 A. Bondarenko M
10 H. Sudakov M
7 Eguinaldo M
14 D. Sikan F
Bench (12)
9 M. Shved
2 L. Traoré
39 Newerton
8 D. Kryskiv
23 Pedrinho
29 Y. Nazaryna
25 N. Miroshi
1 A. Rudko
77 V. Tsukanov
13 G. Gocholeishvili
18 K. Kelsy
37 Kevin

Coach: M. Pusic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.