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Championship

Referee: J Linington

QPR

T T U U T

4–2

Full-time

Stoke

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,5

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 24%

12%

35%

Points per game

0,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

47%

35%

Both score Ø 38%

47%

29%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,6

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,36 xG 0,93

50% Possession 50%

19 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

13 Corners 7

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match QPR 23. · Stoke 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	17	14	0	3	+21	+14.3	42
2	Ipswich	17	12	3	2	+13	+9.2	39
3	West Brom	16	8	5	3	+12	+2.8	29
4	Leeds	16	8	5	3	+10	+11.3	29
5	Southampton	16	8	4	4	+0	+5.3	28
6	Preston	17	8	4	5	-2	-3.9	28
7	Cardiff	17	8	3	6	+7	-1.4	27
8	Hull	17	7	6	4	+3	+0.7	27
9	Sunderland	17	8	2	7	+8	+9.4	26
10	Blackburn	17	8	1	8	+1	+2.2	25
11	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+1	+1.2	25
12	Middlesbrough	17	7	3	7	-1	+9.2	24
13	Norwich	16	7	2	7	-1	-1.1	23
14	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-2	-2.4	22
15	Watford	17	5	6	6	+3	+2.4	21
16	Stoke	17	6	3	8	-5	-3.0	21
17	Swansea	17	5	5	7	+1	-4.7	20
18	Millwall	17	5	5	7	-3	-6.6	20
19	Plymouth	17	5	4	8	+2	-8.1	19
20	Coventry	17	4	7	6	+1	+5.9	19
21	Huddersfield	17	3	7	7	-14	-7.9	16
22	Rotherham	17	2	6	9	-17	-18.5	12
23	QPR	17	2	4	11	-17	-11.2	10
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	3	13	-21	-5.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	8	7	0	1	+10	+9.6	21
2	Leicester	9	7	0	2	+9	+6.9	21
3	West Brom	9	6	2	1	+9	+4.5	20
4	Leeds	8	5	3	0	+9	+8.6	18
5	Birmingham	9	5	3	1	+6	+1.6	18
6	Preston	9	5	2	2	+0	-2.3	17
7	Plymouth	9	5	1	3	+9	-4.0	16
8	Cardiff	8	5	1	2	+6	+0.1	16
9	Watford	9	4	3	2	+10	+7.1	15
10	Sunderland	8	5	0	3	+6	+4.1	15
11	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.9	15
12	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.1	14
13	Hull	8	3	4	1	+3	+2.0	13
14	Middlesbrough	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.0	13
15	Stoke	9	4	1	4	-2	-2.2	13
16	Coventry	8	2	5	1	+2	+4.3	11
17	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.5	11
18	Rotherham	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.8	11
19	Swansea	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.2	10
20	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-6	-3.9	10
21	Blackburn	8	3	0	5	-5	+2.1	9
22	Millwall	9	2	1	6	-8	-2.7	7
23	Sheffield Weds	8	1	2	5	-8	-0.2	5
24	QPR	7	0	2	5	-10	-4.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	8	7	0	1	+12	+7.5	21
2	Ipswich	9	5	3	1	+3	-0.4	18
3	Southampton	9	5	2	2	-1	+0.9	17
4	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.1	16
5	Hull	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.3	14
6	Millwall	8	3	4	1	+5	-3.8	13
7	Sunderland	9	3	2	4	+2	+5.3	11
8	Cardiff	9	3	2	4	+1	-1.5	11
9	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.7	11
10	Middlesbrough	9	3	2	4	-1	+4.2	11
11	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	-1	-0.9	11
12	Preston	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.7	11
13	Swansea	8	3	1	4	+1	-3.4	10
14	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.8	9
15	Coventry	9	2	2	5	-1	+1.7	8
16	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-3	-3.0	8
17	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-3	-0.8	8
18	QPR	10	2	2	6	-7	-7.2	8
19	Watford	8	1	3	4	-7	-4.7	6
20	Huddersfield	8	1	3	4	-8	-4.0	6
21	Birmingham	8	1	1	6	-8	-4.0	4
22	Plymouth	8	0	3	5	-7	-4.1	3
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	1	8	-13	-4.8	1
24	Rotherham	8	0	1	7	-18	-12.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.