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Primeira Liga
Referee: Gustavo Correia
Rio Ave
T T S T T
3–3
Full-time
Estrela
U U S U S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Estrela
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 59%
17%
100%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
0,5
2,2
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
20%
40%
Points per game
0,6
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
40%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,6
4,0
Scored
0,4
2,2
Conceded
2,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,23 xG 1,87
38% Possession 62%
11 Shots 20
6 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 7
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rio Ave 16. · Estrela 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Porto 6 6 0 0 +13 +5.4 18
2 Benfica 6 5 1 0 +17 +9.3 16
3 Sp Lisbon 6 4 2 0 +9 +4.3 14
4 Santa Clara 6 4 2 0 +7 +2.5 14
5 Arouca 6 3 1 2 +3 -1.3 10
6 Estrela 5 2 3 0 +2 -0.8 9
7 Academico Viseu 6 2 2 2 -2 -3.2 8
8 Sp Braga 4 2 1 1 +1 +1.7 7
9 Gil Vicente 5 2 1 2 +0 +2.5 7
10 Maritimo 5 2 1 2 -2 +0.1 7
11 Alverca 6 1 2 3 -3 -3.1 5
12 Famalicao 6 0 4 2 -2 -0.9 4
13 Guimaraes 6 1 1 4 -3 +4.1 4
14 Nacional 6 1 1 4 -4 -3.3 4
15 Moreirense 5 1 1 3 -8 -5.9 4
16 Rio Ave 5 1 0 4 -9 -4.5 3
17 Estoril 5 0 2 3 -5 -3.0 2
18 Casa Pia 6 0 1 5 -14 -3.9 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Mar -26 Rio Ave – Estrela 2–1 25. Oct -25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 5. May -25 Rio Ave – Estrela 2–0 23. Dec -24 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–0 14. Apr -24 Estrela – Rio Ave 2–2

Match report

Rio Ave Estrela
21′
⚽ Ianis Stoica 0–1
Leandro Antonetti
26′
🟨 Max Scholze
Francisco Petrasso 🟨
44′
Half-time 1–1
1–1 Francisco Petrasso ⚽
Diogo Bezerra
48′
53′
⚽ Abraham Marcus 1–2
Max Scholze
Roland Galcik 🔁
↦ Sebastian Clemensen
54′
2–2 Roland Galcik ⚽
Diogo Bezerra
56′
58′
🟨 Eddy Doué
61′
⚽ Abraham Marcus 2–3
Ianis Stoica
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro 🔁
↦ Miguel Patricío
63′
63′
🔁 Joan Jordan
↦ Eddy Doué
Nelson Abbey 🔁
↦ João Tomé Baptista
68′
Malik Sellouki 🔁
↦ Tamas Nikitscher
68′
Marios Vrushai 🔁
↦ Pedro Amaral
68′
71′
🔁 Kevin Hoog Jansson
↦ Max Scholze
72′
🔁 Jefferson Encada
↦ Santiago Serra
76′
🟨 Stefan Lekovic
3–3 Jalen Blesa ⚽
78′
84′
🔁 Beni Souza
↦ Abraham Marcus
84′
🔁 Alisson Souza
↦ Ianis Stoica
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro 🟨
91′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-2-3-1
99 E. van der Gouw G
20 João Tomé D
23 F. Petrasso D
3 S. Garcia D
24 Pedro Amaral D
5 A. Ntoi M
44 T. Nikitscher M
79 M. Patricio M
80 S. Clemmensen M
7 Diogo Bezerra M
11 J. Blesa F
Bench (12)
6 N. Abbey
54 G. Liavas
19 M. Sellouki
21 R. Šiler
77 D. Špikić
39 Gustavo Mancha
9 Tamble Monteiro
32 Vitor Hugo
17 M. Vrousai
30 R. Galčík
70 A. Wenck
60 Caike

Coach: S. Silaidopoulos

Estrela

4-2-3-1
24 Léo Linck G
21 M. Scholze D
5 S. Leković D
30 Patrick Luan D
55 Rafa Soares D
39 Eddy Doue M
78 Santiago Serra M
99 A. Marcus M
14 L. Zvonarek M
10 I. Stoica M
37 L. Antonetti F
Bench (12)
17 Jefferson Encada
6 K. Höög Jansson
19 Joan Jordán
3 L. Mincarelli Davin
49 R. Muteba
71 E. Pedro Vanga
51 Diogo Pinto
8 Robinho
93 B. Souza
80 Alisson
4 Bernardo Schappo
22 David Grilo

Coach: Pepa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,70
🔒
U ✓
3,20
🔒
B
2,48
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,34
🔒
U1,5
3,10
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,03
🔒
U2,5
1,71
🔒
O3,5 ✓
3,60
🔒
U3,5
1,25
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,75
🔒
BLS nei
1,95
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Gustavo Correia · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.