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Premier League

Referee: Michael Salisbury

Leeds

S S U U T

4–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U S S U S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,08 xG 0,88

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 11. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.4	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.1	12
3	Hull	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.4	8
4	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+8	+2.0	7
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.4	7
6	Brentford	4	1	3	0	+3	+3.5	6
7	Liverpool	4	1	3	0	+2	+0.9	6
8	Everton	4	1	3	0	+2	-1.2	6
9	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	-3	-1.4	6
10	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.8	5
11	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.4	5
12	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
13	Man United	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.4	4
14	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
15	Bournemouth	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
16	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	-5	-2.9	2
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-3	-2.0	1
19	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.2	1
20	Coventry	4	0	0	4	-10	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
3	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.5	4
4	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.3	4
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
6	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
7	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
9	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
10	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
11	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.4	2
12	Bournemouth	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
13	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
15	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.4	1
17	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.9	0
18	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-6	+0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.5	6
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.7	6
3	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
4	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
7	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.5	3
8	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
9	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
10	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
11	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.5	3
12	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
13	Everton	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
15	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
16	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
17	Man United	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
18	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.5	1
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.