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Premier League

Referee: D England

Arsenal

S S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,7

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 70%

72%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

44%

61%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,04 xG 2,67

46% Possession 54%

22 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 1. · Aston Villa 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	13	3	2	+22	+21.5	42
2	Man City	18	13	1	4	+26	+15.2	40
3	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+10	-5.5	39
4	Liverpool	18	10	2	6	+4	+6.8	32
5	Chelsea	19	8	6	5	+11	+5.6	30
6	Man United	18	8	5	5	+4	+8.7	29
7	Sunderland	18	7	7	4	+2	-9.2	28
8	Everton	19	8	4	7	+0	-5.5	28
9	Brentford	18	8	2	8	+2	+2.8	26
10	Newcastle	19	7	5	7	+2	+6.0	26
11	Crystal Palace	18	7	5	6	+1	+7.4	26
12	Fulham	18	8	2	8	-1	-3.1	26
13	Tottenham	18	7	4	7	+4	-7.2	25
14	Brighton	19	6	7	6	+1	+3.0	25
15	Bournemouth	19	5	8	6	-6	+1.1	23
16	Leeds	18	5	5	8	-7	+1.7	20
17	Nott'm Forest	19	5	3	11	-12	-4.6	18
18	West Ham	19	3	5	11	-17	-12.8	14
19	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-17	-20.3	12
20	Wolves	18	0	2	16	-29	-11.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	8	1	0	+18	+13.4	25
2	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
3	Aston Villa	9	7	1	1	+8	-1.2	22
4	Brentford	9	6	2	1	+10	+4.6	20
5	Sunderland	9	5	4	0	+8	-2.4	19
6	Liverpool	9	6	1	2	+5	+4.8	19
7	Man United	9	5	2	2	+5	+9.4	17
8	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
9	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
10	Fulham	9	5	1	3	+5	+1.0	16
11	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
12	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+5	+7.3	15
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.3	14
15	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	-2	+7.2	10
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.4	7
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-16	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	5	2	2	+4	-6.8	17
2	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+4	+8.1	17
3	Aston Villa	9	5	2	2	+2	-4.4	17
4	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+3.7	16
5	Crystal Palace	9	5	1	3	+3	+0.2	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
7	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
8	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
9	Man United	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.7	12
10	Fulham	9	3	1	5	-6	-4.1	10
11	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
12	Brighton	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.1	9
13	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
14	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-7	-6.9	8
15	West Ham	9	1	4	4	-6	-7.4	7
16	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
17	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
18	Leeds	9	1	2	6	-12	-5.6	5
19	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-12	-12.3	4
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-13	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.