Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Crystal Palace
Man City
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Brighton
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | +3.5 | 3 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | +1.7 | 3 |
| 3 |
Brentford
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | +3.3 | 3 |
| 4 |
Everton
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 5 |
Hull
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +0.9 | 3 |
| 7 |
Man City
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1.6 | 3 |
| 8 |
Ipswich
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Leeds
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -0.2 | 3 |
| 10 |
Newcastle
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | -1.4 | 1 |
| 11 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | +1.4 | 1 |
| 12 |
Fulham
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -0.9 | 0 |
| 13 |
Bournemouth
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1.6 | 0 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 15 |
Nott'm Forest
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | +0.2 | 0 |
| 16 |
Crystal Palace
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | +0.8 | 0 |
| 17 |
Man United
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | +0.8 | 0 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | -1.7 | 0 |
| 19 |
Tottenham
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | -3.3 | 0 |
| 20 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | -3.5 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
D. Henderson
G
J. Canvot
D
C. Richards
D
T. Tomiyasu
D
A. Khalaili
M
A. Wharton
M
D. Kamada
M
T. Mitchell
M
Y. Pino
F
E. Nketiah
F
J. Larsen
F
Coach: Pierre Sage
G. Donnarumma
G
A. Khusanov
D
R. Dias
D
M. Guehi
D
J. Gvardiol
D
N. O'Reilly
M
E. Anderson
M
P. Foden
M
R. Cherki
M
A. Semenyo
M
E. Haaland
F
Coach: Enzo Maresca
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Everton
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Vallecano
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
Brentford
Crystal Palace
Man City
Crystal Palace
Andy Madley · 129 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.