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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

Union Berlin

T T U T T

2–1

Full-time

Freiburg

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 29%

24%

33%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

45%

64%

Both score Ø 49%

36%

61%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,31 xG 0,98

37% Possession 63%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

14 Free kicks against 9

7 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 16. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	33	27	6	0	+64	+42.8	87
2	Bayern Munich	33	23	3	7	+51	+55.2	72
3	Stuttgart	33	22	4	7	+35	+33.2	70
4	RB Leipzig	33	19	7	7	+38	+26.6	64
5	Dortmund	33	17	9	7	+21	+8.7	60
6	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	13	9	+1	-5.5	46
7	Hoffenheim	33	12	7	14	-2	-7.3	43
8	Freiburg	33	11	9	13	-12	+0.0	42
9	Heidenheim	33	9	12	12	-8	-22.6	39
10	Augsburg	33	10	9	14	-9	-9.2	39
11	Werder Bremen	33	10	9	14	-9	-11.4	39
12	Wolfsburg	33	10	7	16	-13	-3.7	37
13	M'gladbach	33	7	13	13	-7	-7.7	34
14	Bochum	33	7	12	14	-29	-19.4	33
15	Mainz	33	6	14	13	-14	+0.2	32
16	Union Berlin	33	8	6	19	-26	-12.6	30
17	FC Koln	33	5	12	16	-29	-27.6	27
18	Darmstadt	33	3	8	22	-52	-39.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	1	2	+41	+35.9	43
2	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+35	+26.9	42
3	Stuttgart	16	12	3	1	+31	+24.7	39
4	RB Leipzig	17	11	4	2	+28	+21.2	37
5	Dortmund	16	9	3	4	+11	+11.8	30
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	7	2	+8	+6.0	28
7	Augsburg	17	6	6	5	+0	-2.4	24
8	Mainz	17	6	5	6	+5	+11.3	23
9	Heidenheim	16	6	5	5	+1	-6.5	23
10	Bochum	17	5	8	4	-3	+0.6	23
11	Wolfsburg	16	6	4	6	+2	+0.9	22
12	Werder Bremen	16	6	4	6	+0	-1.5	22
13	Freiburg	17	5	7	5	-2	+8.7	22
14	M'gladbach	17	5	6	6	+1	+4.1	21
15	Hoffenheim	16	5	5	6	-2	+4.3	20
16	Union Berlin	16	6	2	8	-9	-4.5	20
17	FC Koln	17	4	4	9	-13	-9.6	16
18	Darmstadt	17	1	3	13	-29	-14.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	17	14	3	0	+29	+15.9	45
2	Stuttgart	17	10	1	6	+4	+8.5	31
3	Dortmund	17	8	6	3	+10	-3.1	30
4	Bayern Munich	16	9	2	5	+10	+19.3	29
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	+10	+5.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	17	7	2	8	+0	-11.6	23
7	Freiburg	16	6	2	8	-10	-8.7	20
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	6	7	-7	-11.5	18
9	Werder Bremen	17	4	5	8	-9	-9.9	17
10	Heidenheim	17	3	7	7	-9	-16.0	16
11	Augsburg	16	4	3	9	-9	-6.8	15
12	Wolfsburg	17	4	3	10	-15	-4.6	15
13	M'gladbach	16	2	7	7	-8	-11.8	13
14	FC Koln	16	1	8	7	-16	-18.0	11
15	Darmstadt	16	2	5	9	-23	-25.5	11
16	Union Berlin	17	2	4	11	-17	-8.1	10
17	Bochum	16	2	4	10	-26	-20.0	10
18	Mainz	16	0	9	7	-19	-11.2	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.