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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Newcastle

S U T S S

4–3

Full-time

Leeds

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

40%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 63%

60%

65%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,44 xG 1,89

63% Possession 37%

18 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 10. · Leeds 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	15	3	2	+26	+21.6	48
2	Man City	21	13	4	4	+26	+17.3	43
3	Aston Villa	21	13	4	4	+9	-4.9	43
4	Liverpool	20	10	4	6	+4	+8.8	34
5	Brentford	21	10	3	8	+7	+6.1	33
6	Chelsea	21	8	7	6	+10	+7.6	31
7	Man United	20	8	7	5	+4	+9.1	31
8	Fulham	21	9	4	8	+0	-5.1	31
9	Sunderland	21	7	9	5	-1	-12.8	30
10	Newcastle	20	8	5	7	+4	+7.4	29
11	Brighton	21	7	8	6	+3	+2.6	29
12	Everton	21	8	5	8	-2	-7.1	29
13	Crystal Palace	21	7	7	7	-1	+5.9	28
14	Tottenham	21	7	6	8	+3	-6.5	27
15	Bournemouth	21	6	8	7	-6	+1.5	26
16	Leeds	20	5	7	8	-7	-0.4	22
17	Nott'm Forest	21	6	3	12	-13	-4.8	21
18	West Ham	21	3	5	13	-21	-14.8	14
19	Burnley	20	3	3	14	-19	-21.5	12
20	Wolves	21	1	4	16	-26	-9.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	1	0	+21	+13.7	28
2	Man City	11	8	2	1	+19	+12.2	26
3	Aston Villa	10	8	1	1	+10	-0.5	25
4	Brentford	11	7	3	1	+13	+6.2	24
5	Sunderland	10	5	5	0	+8	-3.7	20
6	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.8	20
7	Newcastle	10	6	2	2	+6	+7.3	20
8	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
9	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.0	19
10	Bournemouth	11	5	4	2	+5	+6.7	19
11	Man United	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.1	18
12	Leeds	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.6	16
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-1.9	15
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	6	3	-2	+7.1	12
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	10	2	3	5	+0	+0.3	9
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	11	2	1	8	-12	-5.8	7
20	Wolves	10	1	1	8	-13	-2.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	6	2	2	+5	+7.8	20
2	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+3	-6.8	18
3	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	-1	-4.5	18
4	Man City	10	5	2	3	+7	+5.0	17
5	Chelsea	11	4	4	3	+6	+3.2	16
6	Crystal Palace	10	5	1	4	+1	-1.2	16
7	Liverpool	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.6	14
8	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
9	Man United	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.0	13
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-8	-7.1	11
12	Brighton	11	2	4	5	-4	-1.5	10
13	Sunderland	11	2	4	5	-9	-9.1	10
14	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
15	Brentford	10	3	0	7	-6	-0.1	9
16	West Ham	10	1	4	5	-9	-9.0	7
17	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
18	Leeds	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.0	6
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-14	-13.4	4
20	Wolves	11	0	3	8	-13	-7.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.