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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Leeds

T T U S T

2–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

57%

39%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,86 xG 0,80

62% Possession 38%

21 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 8

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 18. · Nott'm Forest 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	29	23	3	3	+43	+12.6	72
2	Man City	28	20	4	4	+45	+14.7	64
3	Newcastle	27	13	11	3	+22	+6.0	50
4	Tottenham	29	15	5	9	+12	+1.1	50
5	Man United	27	15	5	7	+4	-2.6	50
6	Brighton	26	12	7	7	+15	+11.6	43
7	Brentford	28	10	13	5	+9	+1.2	43
8	Liverpool	27	12	6	9	+15	+3.6	42
9	Aston Villa	28	12	5	11	-2	-4.2	41
10	Fulham	28	11	6	11	+0	-5.9	39
11	Chelsea	28	10	8	10	-1	+3.2	38
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	9	13	-15	-5.5	30
13	Wolves	29	7	7	15	-19	-4.5	28
14	West Ham	27	7	6	14	-9	+1.5	27
15	Everton	29	6	9	14	-18	-5.6	27
16	Nott'm Forest	28	6	9	13	-27	-7.3	27
17	Bournemouth	28	7	6	15	-28	-5.2	27
18	Leeds	28	6	8	14	-12	-5.4	26
19	Leicester	28	7	4	17	-10	-3.4	25
20	Southampton	29	6	5	18	-24	-6.0	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+24	+8.4	38
2	Man City	14	12	1	1	+33	+10.2	37
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Man United	13	9	3	1	+16	+4.7	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
6	Newcastle	14	8	5	1	+14	+4.1	29
7	Brentford	14	7	6	1	+14	+1.3	27
8	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
9	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+4	-0.3	23
10	Chelsea	14	6	4	4	+4	+4.5	22
11	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.9	22
12	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+4	+5.9	21
13	Nott'm Forest	15	5	6	4	+1	-4.1	21
14	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
15	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-2	-0.5	19
16	Everton	15	5	3	7	-4	-0.1	18
17	Leeds	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
18	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-7	+0.8	17
19	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-1	-0.5	12
20	Southampton	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	1	2	+19	+4.2	34
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Newcastle	13	5	6	2	+8	+1.9	21
4	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	-1	-1.0	20
5	Man United	14	6	2	6	-12	-7.2	20
6	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.8	19
7	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	-6	-4.0	18
8	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-1	-5.1	17
9	Brentford	14	3	7	4	-5	-0.1	16
10	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
11	Leicester	15	4	1	10	-9	-2.9	13
12	Southampton	15	4	1	10	-14	-3.9	13
13	Liverpool	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
14	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
15	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.7	10
16	Leeds	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.5	9
17	Everton	14	1	6	7	-14	-5.4	9
18	Bournemouth	14	2	2	10	-26	-4.7	8
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	13	1	3	9	-28	-3.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.