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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Nacional

T U T T S

0–1

Full-time

Moreirense

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

0,5

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 16%

14%

18%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

39%

43%

Both score Ø 43%

39%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

0,7

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 10

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 17. · Moreirense 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	22	5	2	+47	71
2	Porto	29	20	8	1	+49	68
3	Sp Lisbon	29	19	6	4	+31	63
4	Guimaraes	29	15	8	6	+12	53
5	Sp Braga	29	14	9	6	+17	51
6	Maritimo	29	12	8	9	+0	44
7	Rio Ave	29	11	6	12	-4	39
8	Chaves	29	8	12	9	-1	36
9	Boavista	29	8	11	10	-3	35
10	Vitoria Setubal	29	9	8	12	-3	35
11	Feirense	29	10	5	14	-18	35
12	Belenenses	29	8	8	13	-14	32
13	Arouca	29	9	4	16	-17	31
14	Pacos Ferreira	29	6	11	12	-12	29
15	Estoril	29	7	7	15	-11	28
16	Moreirense	28	5	6	17	-19	21
17	Nacional	28	4	8	16	-26	20
18	Tondela	29	4	8	17	-28	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+32	41
2	Benfica	15	12	3	0	+34	39
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+22	35
4	Sp Braga	15	9	4	2	+16	31
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+10	30
6	Chaves	15	6	7	2	+6	25
7	Vitoria Setubal	15	7	3	5	+4	24
8	Guimaraes	14	6	5	3	+5	23
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	7	2	+3	22
10	Rio Ave	14	6	4	4	+1	22
11	Arouca	15	6	1	8	-4	19
12	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-4	17
13	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
14	Boavista	14	4	4	6	+2	16
15	Tondela	14	4	3	7	-6	15
16	Moreirense	14	2	6	6	-5	12
17	Nacional	14	2	6	6	-8	12
18	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Guimaraes	15	9	3	3	+7	30
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	4	3	+9	28
4	Porto	14	7	6	1	+17	27
5	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+1	20
6	Boavista	15	4	7	4	-5	19
7	Feirense	14	5	3	6	-8	18
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	17
9	Rio Ave	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-10	15
11	Maritimo	15	3	5	7	-10	14
12	Arouca	14	3	3	8	-13	12
13	Chaves	14	2	5	7	-7	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	5	7	-7	11
15	Moreirense	14	3	0	11	-14	9
16	Nacional	14	2	2	10	-18	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	4	10	-15	7
18	Tondela	15	0	5	10	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.